Starting back at the beginning. The dramatic aspects of the Egyptian crisis, with people dead and injured, have been dominating the news - and this is quite natural. When there is now a seeming return to calm, another exercise is becoming essential - the repercussions of the events on relations between Egypt and Europe. The calls common sense and intelligence, such as Catherine Ashton's statement on behalf of the EU, are inevitable, but their effectiveness is questionable. EUROPE 10884 reported on them - Mrs Ashton called on the Egyptian political and military forces to reconciliation, to act responsibly, to avoid the escalation of violence; and she demanded a swift, in-depth and impartial inquiry. These wishes are normal but they bring nothing to understanding the repercussions on relations between the EU and Egypt. We need to start back at the beginning.
The reasons for the current drama. Three elements are compromised on which the greatness and prosperity of today's Egypt depend. The first concerns the world's attraction for Egypt's ancient civilisation. The second lies in the water of the Nile, and the third is in the contribution of the Suez Canal.
The civilisation of ancient Egypt came several thousand years both before the birth of Jesus and that of Mohamed. After numerous events (in particular, wars with Rome and colonisation), and until its independence in 1922, the Arab civilisation had the ability and the greatness of spirit required to make the three aspects coincide. This period is now over because:
the safety of the Suez Canal is compromised by the banditry of neighbouring countries
the claims of Ethiopia and other nearby countries compromise Egypt's control of the water of the Nile
American funding for the Egyptian army disappears if the Egypt-Israel agreement is not respected.
If American support (over $1.5 million per year) disappears, the Egyptian army loses its modern armament and thus the mainstay of its efficiency and ability to take action. Without guaranteed radical domestic peacemaking, the virtual disappearance of tourism (a crucial source of the Egyptian budget) will go on, and the purchase of food that is essential for feeding the population will become increasingly problematic. The issue of the water of the Nile is being discussed with Ethiopia but a compromise is not simple. Without stable solutions in these three domains, the calls for intelligent responses will remain an exercise in style with no real effectiveness on the country's recovery.
Massive funding from other sources. How could Egypt get out of such an accumulation of problems? As is to be expected, the Muslim world in general, and the Arab world in particular, is beginning to take action, and those who are able to do so will use the most effective instrument - massive funding. Saudi Arabia has reportedly announced a payment of $5 billion, and the United Arab Emirates $3 billion. Qatar has apparently already bought $4 billion of Egyptian treasury bonds but did so rather timidly. What is sure is that this is not selfless solidarity. The reason for the funding is apparently the rivalries between the different Muslim religious tendencies - with the Salafists on one side (who support the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt) and opposing currents on the other. It is not for us, in Europe, to intervene in these rivalries, nor to take a position.
Europe must not forget its historical debt… Europe does not, of course, have to choose between the internal factions of the Muslim world, but it must never forget that it is the Muslim culture that at the time saved the essential texts of the Greek and Roman civilisations (with the help of several European monasteries) when the West had largely forgotten or lost them. This is an everlasting debt that demands reciprocal respect and cooperation, not to mention the historic links between ancient Rome and the Egypt of this era. Furthermore, Egypt is by far the most populated Arab country.
… but it must take account of developments. This said, it should be noted that today's Egypt no longer has anything to do with the Arab Spring, in which it participated at the start. The EU has kept contact with the other Arab Spring countries, to which Algeria and Morocco have been added. This is an important aspect of European policy and it involves all the countries of the southern shore of the Mediterranean. Egypt's place is now elsewhere - politically and economically. Europe should take account of this.
(FR/transl.fl)