Everything is becoming complicated. The Euro-American negotiation for a strengthened partnership runs the risk of not being opened within the timeframe that was planned. The reservations from France concerning the cultural sector have been known for a long time and this column has always tried not to dramatise them - a clarification between the French authorities and European Commissioner for Trade Karel De Gucht, the designated negotiator, ought to have enabled the difference to be ironed out. Quite the contrary - everything is becoming complicated. The reservation about the cultural aspect has spread to 14 member states (see EUROPE 10845) and questions are now being asked about the possibility of the EU adopting its negotiating position within the timeframe planned, and of granting the European Commission the negotiating mandate before 14 June. What is more, and very particularly, the impression is growing stronger that the reluctance from France goes beyond the cultural aspect and concerns the actual advisability of establishing very close links between the EU and the US in the current circumstances.
The urgency is nevertheless linked to the fact that the Commission comes to the end of its mandate at the end of next year. If the negotiations are not brought to an end, a new negotiator will have to replace Karel De Gucht. Everything will slow down and the closer links between the EU and the US would become a long term project which will no longer have the same significance or the same objectives. The impression is that France might like this approach - and Paris would not be alone.
Fundamental choices. Europe is therefore faced with a fundamental choice - either it considers that it's necessary to strengthen its links with the US and must bring this about quickly, or it deems that the EU should strengthen its autonomy and give just as much importance to links with other regions in the world.
The search for a special agreement with the US has partly been dictated by the impression that the Americans were in the process of gradually focusing their attention on the Pacific Ocean and on their specific relations with the Asian countries - to the detriment of the Atlantic Ocean and the Europeans. The relaunch of Euro-American relations therefore seemed necessary to avoid the EU ending up partly isolated. My recent observations about the loss of clout in the EU's international role strengthen these arguments - an isolated Europe would be too weak.
Reasons for the reluctance. The doubts and uncertainty about the radical strengthening of Euro-American cooperation are essentially based on three considerations:
Europe is in crisis and it's not the best moment to strengthen its links with the US - links which are being boosted and strengthened in essential areas like energy;
The pre-electoral period (new European Parliament in 2014) and the renewal of the Commission mean that this is not the most appropriate time for a negotiation which will have colossal repercussions;
Concluding this negotiation before the end of the year is an illusion.
Experts, on the contrary, indeed forecast a negotiation of two to three years as there are so many delicate and difficult chapters. The Americans want to leave aside: - the total liberalisation of maritime and air transport; - some aspects of financial regulation; - safety standards for some categories of automobile. In the food domain, they also want to keep some of our controlled appellations especially ones based on geographical indications - like champagne, parmesan and emmenthal.
Tactics. On the European side, the cultural exception is the most visible derogation, but not the only one. The EU could, for example, exclude free trade in genetically modified products. Karel De Gucht believes that a radically negative position on culture could permit the US to demand similar exclusions in other areas - the negotiators mustn't be given weapons! Several EU governments share his caution. It's significant that the cultural exception move has been underwritten by the member states' culture ministers, but not by their foreign affairs or trade ministers.
The European Parliament has not yet given its opinion in plenary session. It will do this next week and its position could be more subtle than that of the Parliament's committee which has supported the French position. The president of the European Commission, Barroso, has said: “We must not exclude the audiovisual sector from the negotiation, but must make it clear that the cultural exception is not negotiable”.
Objectivity. I have tried to present the current positions objectively. It should be noted that nothing is in the bag, and how things develop remains uncertain.
(FR/transl.fl)