Two-speed Europe is inevitable. With its autonomous institutions? I understand - and indeed appreciate - the reasons of those who reject the idea of a two-speed Europe so as to avoid the break up of the EU into numerous different parts. But how can people pretend not to see that this formula is happening more and more - including the institutional aspect? The French economy and finance minister, Pierre Moscovici, even presented the detailed contents of the eurozone part at a conference organised by the European Parliament's social democrat group in Brussels last week:
(1) creation of a eurozone own budgetary capacity, which would be distinct from the community budget and equipped with autonomous financing; (2) issuance of pooled debt, when the time is right; (3) strengthening democratic control with a body or a group within the European Parliament, in charge of euro issues; (4) creation of a post of European minister in charge of managing the eurozone (see EUROPE 10801).
Of course, nothing is yet in the bag but nonetheless this is a significant gesture.
Mr Juncker, Greece and optimism. Our readers have doubtless accorded the attention it deserves to our interview with Jean-Claude Juncker that was published last week, considering the role that he has played for so many years and his sometimes cutting remarks with regard to current eurozone financial and economic affairs - for which he had primary responsibility until January.
In this context, he was explicit on the case of Greece, stressing that “the Greek recovery programme is moving in the right direction”. He does not deny that the hypothesis of a Greek exit from the eurozone has sometimes been talked about, but he stresses: “I have always strongly opposed such a scenario, which was rejected in the end (…) I said at every meeting that we must put an end to speculation about Greece leaving the eurozone. Talk of this type was, and proved to be, highly dangerous. When people stopped talking of the scenario of a 'Grexit', then things got much better.” And he added: “Greece has paid a heavy price for such irresponsible talk (…) This is an error that the Eurogoup itself did not commit, but others did” (see EUROPE 10799).
This column effectively took part in the irresponsible talk that Mr Juncker talks about. Yet while pointing out that I do not believe that Greece can stay long in the eurozone, I would add that I was writing without remorse because my opinion could not have any influence. It was based on the impossibility, in my view, of Greece being able to respect the commitments it has taken on; the cost for the eurozone which results from this is astronomical; for Greece itself it would be preferable to leave the euro, while keeping European support as a country of the EU. Leaving the eurozone does not in any way mean exiting the united Europe - one remains a full member of it, even if too many people do not know this (or pretend not to). The EU is in the midst of updating all the financing and other support possible for a Greece which would find itself in this situation.
I understand that the Greek exit from the euro must be realised in good conditions and requires certain time schedules. The operation is complex and Mr Juncker's attitude is justified and commendable, even if the cost of keeping Greece in the single currency weighs heavily on European finances.
But as to the destination, I maintain my opinion - even if I would be happy to be mistaken.
Italy must choose. On a general level, the firmness with regard to eurozone countries that do not respect the eurozone's implicit disciplines - despite the support the countries have available - stands to reason and is crucial. Mr Juncker himself has been clear on the Italian case: “It is unthinkable that, from one day to the next, Italy would radically change tack and add to its deficit and pile up more debt”. He believes that Rome must respect the commitments it took on within the Eurogroup at the time when it was presiding over it. We can understand that the head of the German liberals, Rainer Brüderle, former minister of the economy in Berlin, apparently said: “If Italy does not want to take drastic measures, it is free to leave the euro.”
I have already pointed out that the trend in Italy is to move towards a government uniting the socialist leaning party (PD) of Mr Bersani, the M5S of Mr Grillo and the group of Mr Monti. While waiting, Mr Monti presides over the government in charge in principle of managing current affairs. Yet, he is determined to express Italy's resolve to stay in the eurozone, at the European Council this week.
(FR/transl.fl)