Continuing our look at the subjects that are at the centre of European activity at the beginning of this New Year 2013 (see this column in yesterday's EUROPE), it is important to underline that two key sectors of EU activity will be profoundly transformed - (1) the common commercial policy; (2) the package of guidelines that replace - for better or worse, depending on the case - the common energy policy.
Commercial policy - from reciprocity to industrial recovery. Nothing will be as it was before. The transformation of EU trade relations with the outside world has two aspects:
(1) the opening of the European market will be more subject to real reciprocity from third countries;
(2) the EU's endeavours to recover the part of industrial activity that it had, in practice, renounced will be put into action. Swift-moving globalisation had, in the mind of some countries, led to a type of doctrine of renunciation: European businesses kept control of the aspects of industrial activity that were considered noble - discoveries, product design, technological management and marketing - while manufacturing was entrusted to third countries where the labour was much, much cheaper. What ingenuousness, in the face countries of ancient civilisations - first and foremost China - that are perfectly able to gradually take control of all aspects of production themselves! Here is telling example: it has been reported that China will this year, quite independently, produce more cars than the whole of the EU!
It is thus essential that several EU countries recover control of their industrial production which they had partly renounced. They are in the midst of doing this, the corner has been turned and the work must be further developed.
Yet this direction must be accompanied by the other demand mentioned above: effective reciprocity of third countries with regard to trade - which is far from the reality - must be widely brought to bear in 2013. This will be the result of several years of Commissioner Karel De Gucht's work and patience, with the support of the European Parliament that is using its new powers in this field to a maximum. It is true that the Parliament got a little carried away with rhetoric - for example with regard to a huge and unrealistic free trade area between the EU and Mercosur - but it is becoming increasingly realistic in its defence of European interests. The failure of the multilateral Geneva negotiations at the WTO means Europe has to engage in a long and patient job of bilateral and regional negotiations, to which should be added: (1) the search for a specific free trade regime with the United States (more complex than was thought); (2) the need to clarify the headache of trade relations with associated African countries, which sometimes increase their trade with China while at the same time demanding that EU support be maintained.
The objective for 2013 is not, of course, to conclude all the negotiations that have been started or planned with third countries, but to affirm and have the principle of reciprocity respected in a less naïve way (this adjective, if I remember rightly, was used by Mr De Gucht himself). The commitment of third countries must cover not only the most visible aspect of trade - that of customs - but also services, investment and especially public contracts. Global reciprocity is crucial, especially in relations with the so-called emerging countries which - with Brazil in the lead - have emerged quite fully. The EU is no longer in a position to recognise the inequalities - it supports the freedom of international trade, but in line with rules and commitments.
In particular, significant results are this year crucial in the war against counterfeiting, which is making Europe lose tens of thousands of jobs and leads to losses of over €800 billion per year. This scourge is often managed by organised crime. Sometimes the businesses concerned hesitate to denounce the crimes for fear of reprisal - to such an extent that Karel De Gucht has envisaged that the Commission itself denounce counterfeit products.
It is clear that EU action must not slip into protectionism. On the contrary, the war against abuse aims at developing the freedom and development of trade still further.
Energy - the time for transformation. An EU policy in this area cannot be spoken about as it does not exist. For the main part, each member state behaves as it sees fit. This statement might seem an exaggeration because the number of Community decisions and European legal texts relating to the energy sector increases by the day - the Commission and Parliament have considerably enlarged the circle of aspects relating to Community competence. The member states accept this - within the Council they are ever more cooperative and the results are often significant. For example, in the area of saving energy, initiatives are found within the European framework and are ambitious and effective.
However, European energy sources are running out and they are often defined at the top as historic remains. Relations with third countries are thus crucial and are still in the hands of national authorities or oil and gas companies. Some behaviour has been, and indeed still is, almost unbelievable: Italo-Russian cooperation discussed in confidential Putin-Berlusconi meetings; gas pipeline networks in competition against each other with projects that overlap; astonishing projects that the European institutions learn about through the media; and engagements with Russia that cause a great deal of bafflement. I could go on with this list, to which could be added the endless controversy on the correct remuneration of renewable energy and on its compatibility with the protection of nature…
The year that is now beginning is going to be one of great upheaval in the world of energy, and Europe will only punch its weight if it acts as a whole. Should I recall the real revolution that has been announced with the development of new sources (like shale gas)? Or the fact that the United States says that it will be autonomous in gas and oil, and even major exporters of both in the future? This year the EU needs to become organised so that it speaks with a single voice and acts as a whole - whatever the legal obstacles. The Lisbon Treaty is not totally silent on this subject - energy features among the shared competences between the EU and the member states, and supply security features in the possible common action.
One regret remains - that of not having followed Jacques Delors' suggestion of creating a European Energy Community. Yet let's at least use the instruments that are available.
European defence policy - will 2013 be a decisive year? The military branch of the EU's foreign policy will see a turning point. Reflection is under way between the countries concerned with regard to strengthening cooperation on arms. The Defence Council met on 19 November and the European Parliament adopted, by a large majority three days later, a resolution on the CSDP (common security and defence policy). The starting point was the obvious observation that the financial crisis is taking its toll on arms policy and requires more cooperation. The European Defence Agency (EDA) has worked on some suggestions - strengthening cooperation to face up to the reduction in national budgets; optimising national efforts with regard to synergies in research and development; developing studies on the role of the defence industry. In practice, it is about seeing if and how the EU could act more as a whole in the framework of NATO.
EUROPE 10733 reported on the meeting of 19 November between the defence ministers, where the principle of closer cooperation was affirmed, and projects and programmes on this have been reviewed and expanded upon within the EDA. The ministers have set themselves the deadline of one year, 2013, to finalise ambitious projects that include the possibility of a common industrial policy, with this involving fundamental choices, and the search for a new balance between national sovereignty and common investment. The possible options will be discussed over the course of the year and will be put to heads of state and government at the European Council next December.
It can be noted that in the military domain, 2013 could open up new horizons.
(1) European elections. These will take place in 2014, but the electoral campaigns will be under way from the second half of this year and the political parties will have defined their positions. The result will not only determine the composition of the European Parliament but also the presidency of the European Commission.
(2) Elections in Italy. These will represent the top national political event in February with highly important European repercussions, especially in the European People's Party (EPP), which has in practice set Silvio Berlusconi aside by inviting Mario Monti, even though he is not part of the group, to its meeting on 13 December last year. German elections will follow on in the autumn.
(3) Seat of the European Parliament. The dispute between the supporters of a single seat in Brussels and the supporters of double Brussels-Strasbourg seat will inevitably continue, but nothing signals a definite solution being found in 2013.
(4) European fiscal compact. This pact, signed by 25 member states (not the United Kingdom or the Czech Republic), came into force on 1 January and requires increased national budgetary discipline from the member states (see EUROPE 10758).
(FR/transl.fl)