Brussels, 02/10/2012 (Agence Europe) - In its short term forecasts published on Monday 1 October the European Commission is expecting a 3.3% drop for cereal production in 2012, with a sharp decrease in the maize harvest (-16%) due to the impact of the drought in Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary. It also forecasts a steep drop in beef and veal production, and a moderate increase in milk production.
The Commission expects total cereal production to reach 276.2 million tonnes in 2012. It explains that the combined effect of lower EU production and limited availabilities of imports from the Black Sea region is expected to weigh on the EU cereal balance, bringing its stock to use ratio to just 12% in 2012 (from 13.6% during the previous marketing year). In oilseeds and protein crops, the 2012 harvest is also expected to decrease to 18.6 million tonnes for rapeseed (from 19.1 million in 2011), 7 million tonnes for sunflower seed (from 8.8 million in 2011) and 2.4 million tonnes for protein crops (from 2.7 million tonnes in 2011).
For meat, European production is expected to decrease slightly in 2012 (-0.6%). A strong decline in beef and veal net production is expected (-4.8%) and a significant increase in poultry meat (+1.9%). Pig meat production should see a slight drop (-0.4%). In 2013 a bigger decrease in meat production is forecast (-1.3%) due to the rise in feed costs (because of the drought in the USA). Pig meat production is likely to be affected by the new in-pig sow welfare rules which come into force from 1 January 2013.
Milk production is expected to increase by 0.9% to 153.1 million tonnes in 2012, and a 1.1% rise is expected in 2013. The number of dairy cows continues to decline (22.9 million heads in 2011, 22.7 million in 2012, and 22.5 million in 2013). However, the average yield per cow continues to increase (6,472 kg of milk in 2011, 6,584 kg in 2012 and 6,647 kg in 2013). (LC/transl.fl)