Brussels, 29/06/2012 (Agence Europe) - Since the crisis began in 2008, the flows of migrants from southern countries to northern countries have been moderate. Nonetheless, the situation could change radically if unemployment persists. Between 2011 and 2011, Germany experienced a 90% increase in migration from Greece. Such flows could soon rise to “levels not reached since the post-war decades”, the European Commission warns in its latest quarterly review, published on Wednesday 27 June, which pays “special attention” to the matter.
Current data show that there are nearly 8.7 million unemployed in the southern EU countries. Although, in reality, those persons, and especially the young, are still mostly reticent or unable to migrate to another member state, they nonetheless express the hope of doing so sometime in the near future. The European Barometer in 2011 thus showed that two thirds of Italian and Spanish job seekers aged 15 to 35 were ready to settle outside their own country with a view to finding work. There are nearly as many in Greece (63%) and in Portugal (57%).
Publication of the quarterly review coincided with the publication of the 2012 annual report of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) on international migratory trends (see EUROPE 10643). The report, which noted that migration towards European countries generally fell by 3% in 2010, underlines that departures from southern countries of Europe have been less numerous than expected.
The Commission comes to the same conclusion but on the basis of more recent data, warning that migratory flows are now taking more sizeable proportions. The number of Spanish and Greek migrants is on the rise, which mainly contrasts with the “overall drop in intra-EU mobility since 2008”. One might ask where those migrants are heading. Germany seems to be seen as the promised land. Although it is not the country with the most incoming migrants, as the United Kingdom is still the most prized destination, Germany, alongside Belgium, is facing the greatest upsurge in migrant flows. Between 2010 and 2011, migratory flows increased by 45% from the southern member nations, an increase of 52% from Spain and 90% from Greece. Migrants are mainly young, well educated people with qualifications in the tertiary sector.
The total number is still relatively low, compared to migration from the central and eastern European states. Nonetheless, the Commission underlines that “if current youth and long-term unemployment in those countries were to persist or to become worse in the medium term, mobility to North Europe and non-EU countries could increase far more”. The medium-term prospect is difficult to forecast but, in the short term, all indicators point to unemployment being on the rise.
Regarding the consequences of such migration, the Commission considers there is little danger of a “brain drain”. The review, however, is after all only a “first attempt” at quantifying the phenomenon and pinpointing what is at stake. Other studies are expected to include more data, data which will be an indication among others of the real consequences of such migratory changes. As pointed out by Angel Gurria, OECD General Secretary, “labour market developments and migration flows are closely linked”. Developments of this kind concern not only the host countries but also those who see their nationals leave. (JK/transl.jl)