A famous Arab author wrote … It is with relief that I will let one of the best known and renowned Arab writers and poets, Tahar Ben Jelloun, speak about the changes taking place in the countries of the Arab Spring. In a piece picked up by the press in a number of European countries, he observes that, in the first phase of this Spring, the talk was all of freedom and democracy. Then, “what no one expected happened: in Tunisia and Egypt, those who gained most from the revolution were the Islamists, who did not incite events and who did not take part in the demonstrations in which hundreds of people were injured or killed. This is a paradox which has spread from Morocco to Yemen, through Libya and the rest of the region. Thus, the Arab Spring has been transformed into a long 'Islamist season' which could last years”. He goes on: “At the moment, the most extremist of Muslims claim to be intervening in the daily lives of citizens”, in a climate of repression of freedom. In Tunisia, the television channel that broadcast the film Persepolis which contains a representation of Allah has been referred to the courts; women not wearing the veil meet with violence and hostility; stating that one is an atheist results in years in prison. At the same time, the writer adds, a society, made up mainly of women, “is resisting this type of fascism”. Ben Jelloun concludes with the statement that the Arab Spring “got rid of the dictators only to replace them with a similar regime, only this time under the flag of religion”.
Reciprocity of commitments is essential. Tahar Ben Jelloun, a Moroccan, can openly express his opinions and criticisms since he belongs to that region. We, as Europeans, have the duty to accept and respect what other peoples decide in their own countries. That said, we have the right to demand reciprocity on the common area, the free movement of ideas and people, and free trade. That is the very meaning of the term Union. This column has always argued that, if there is no reciprocity, the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM) is merely an abstract construct with no attachment to reality and no content. The UfM can only be effective by changing what it stands for and how it works. The new secretary general has laid the groundwork (see my editorial in EUROPE 10597) and several governments from the southern rim of the Mediterranean are moving in the same direction, individually negotiating trade regimes with the EU and different forms of cooperation to suit each different case. This is the right way effectively to strengthen reciprocal links. It is not something that seems to have been understood by all, however. Replacing a failed theoretical vision with another that is equally vague and wordy (such as the one reported in EUROPE 10599 through a sense of duty and objectivity) can only result in continued misunderstanding.
Peace among participants is essential. Is it necessary to add that, for any Union to claim to be such, it should be presupposed that all the members live in peace with one another? Yet, in the geographical UfM, some governments aspire only to the destruction of one of the member states (Israel), others are in conflict over who owns part of the Sahara, and other, less obvious, conflicts are bubbling away.
The only effective direction to be taken is to set the UfM objectives which it can seek to attain as a single body, that is to say, to negotiate concrete operational cooperation initiatives with those countries of the southern rim which are prepared to come on board. That, in fact, is largely how things already stand. There is talk of trade with Morocco and trade in energy with Algeria, and of political and immigration cooperation with whomsoever it is possible to find agreement on reciprocal commitments. In some areas, solid bases for cooperation already exist, and the prospects are good. Great uncertainty remains, however. Here is a case in point.
The specific (and worrying) case of Egypt
Confusion and uncertainty. There is no point in trying to ignore reality. Egypt is a major country in the region, its history stretches back thousands of years and its artistic heritage is incomparable. However, events surrounding the preparation of the presidential election on 23 and 24 May give cause for concern in a number of ways: several candidates for election have not been disqualified by the electoral commission; the parliamentary committee appointed to draft the new constitution has been suspended; the future role of the military is unclear and controversial. I would also point out that, in the parliamentary election, Islamist parties took 70% of the seats (with the Muslim Brotherhood taking 50% and the Salafists 20%) and liberal and secular parties were practically wiped out. Furthermore, the Coptic Patriarchy is experiencing times of great uncertainty.
The risks. The current uncertainties carry the risk that the parliament and incoming president might move towards breaking the Peace Treaty (Camp David Accords), concluded between Egypt and Israel over 30 years ago, in 1979. One of the points of the agreement, the supply of Egyptian gas (from the Sinai fields) to Israel, which has been in place since 2005, was suspended by the Egyptian authorities on 22 April. The pipeline carrying the gas has been attacked 14 times in the space of a year. The Israeli authorities have managed to downplay the situation as their country has considerable offshore reserves which will become available soon and in increasing quantities. It would seem clear, however, that it is the Camp David Accords as a whole that will be put in doubt if the current Egyptian parliament and the future presidency hold all the power. The repercussions could be worrying for relations between Egypt and Israel and for the whole region.
They will be particularly dramatic for the domestic situation in Egypt itself, however. Suspension of gas sales to Israel was called for and strongly supported by a large majority in the parliament, describing the decision as “historic” and calling for it to be made permanent. Such a move would leave a gaping hole in the finances of a country which is already experiencing serious difficulty.
The position of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, which is in interim charge of the country along with the Muslim Brotherhood, is quite different. Even if it is not talked about, it must not be forgotten that the Egyptian military forces receive substantial funding from the United States. This support is, of course, linked to compliance with the Camp David Accords and later the undertakings which have marked Egypt-Israel relations. The Egyptian Exchequer will not be able to replace the American military aid from national resources.
Spirit of cooperation must prevail. The above ma y help to understand the reasons for the domestic political situation in Egypt and the difficulties it contains. It is true that, alongside this, numerous initiatives are seeking to make use of the country's immeasurable national artistic, historic, tourist and natural beauty assets. Egypt, too, is taking part in regional initiatives that our newsletter regularly reports on. May I draw two of the most recent to your attention? Firstly, the meeting between the president of the European Investment Bank (EIB) and the new UfM secretary general, who together discussed updating EIB funding to ensure they are in line with the priorities of the southern rim: job creation and improvement of people's social and economic conditions. The new list of agreed projects covers, inter alia, urban development, the environment and renewable energy. Secondly, the Association of Mediterranean electricity grid operators has been set up, with the Algerian group Sonelgaz holding the presidency.
The treasures of the past and the efforts of the present will be of no effect, however, if fanaticism and hatred win the day domestically. If I may return to the general points raised above: the transition of the theoretical, rhetorical UfM of the past to a real, fully operational UfM will only be effective for those countries which want to create and increasingly comply with the conditions for real cooperation. (FR/transl.rt)