A cloud on the Turkish horizon? Recent developments in Turkey have just been described by few observers as uncertain and, to an extent, worrying. This section has recently taken clear stances from two points of view: (a) reaffirming that Turkish accession to the EU is a project with no future or chances of success and that the time has come definitively to drop this fiction; (b) stressing Turkey's real role at international level, particularly in the Mediterranean region and the Arab world, a role which is not just political and military, but also historical and cultural. I'm not changing my mind about this. But now, Turkey is announcing dark years!
Let me be quite clear about this: Europe is neither the source nor the cause of Turkey's problems; they are first and foremost internal. The Turkish authorities and Turkish society are struggling to resolve problems which have dragged on for a long time: the Kurdish issue, which is the most serious on the ground; the row over the “genocide” of the Armenians, which is not going away (and the French Senate has its share of the responsibility for this); the repercussions of a military coup d'état from September 1980, because the trials of two Generals involved are just starting, even though they are now old men. I could give further examples.
Alongside these age-old internal issues, there is a lengthening list of current conflicts in which Turkey is involved for geographical reasons: the drama of Syria, the question of Iran's nuclear activity, bilateral problems with Iraq. This is just an overview of the problems Turkey has to face up to, which also cover the worsening of relations with Israel and, to an extent, with NATO.
With the EU, growing difficulties. At the same time, Turkey's political relations with Europe are running the risk of igniting, because as of July, the Presidency of the Council of the EU will be held by Cyprus, when half of this island is still under occupation by Turkey by means of the Turkish Republic of North Cyprus, a country recognised only by Ankara and characterised by the presence on the ground of 40,000 Turkish soldiers. And as the situation is showing no signs of getting any better, the Erdogan government has announced that it will not recognise the Cypriot Presidency of the EU! In addition, energy cooperation projects with the EU are running into an increasing number of obstacles, to which I will return, as I will to the enormous fields of gas which have been discovered under the sea to the south of Cyprus. It is true that today, there are very few countries in the world, or groups of countries, which do not face similar complications; but here, we are talking about a country which is still officially considered a candidate to join the EU!
Advantages of an alternative solution. If this hypothesis of accession were wisely shelved, relations between the two sides could move towards effective cooperation. The differences of opinion to which I refer would be largely appeased, Turkey could take back the ability to face up to its current problems and take its place as an international power, whilst ensuring respect for what its people wants in terms of religion (confirmed by the results of the elections), political autonomy, which could not be 100% inside an EU which is moving towards a common foreign policy, freedom of religion and the secularity of the State. I do not believe, for example, that the tone of the declaration by the European Commission recently sent to Ankara on the subject of press freedom, which was reported in EUROPE 10329, went down terribly well with the Turkish people; it read “Turkish law does not fully guarantee the freedom of the press (…). Turkey must amend its legislation is a matter of urgency in order to improve the freedom of the press fully and significantly.”
In parallel with the problems it has to resolve internally, Turkey is making progress on an economic level, standards of living have improved across its vast Asian territory and Istanbul remains one of the most vibrant and fascinating places on the face of the earth, with its 17 million inhabitants.
According to the Turkish Nobel prizewinner Orhan Pamuk, “the dream of Turkey in Europe has disappeared”. And Istanbul has become a “centre of attraction for immigration from Asia and Africa”; Pamuk also notes the general disenchantment of non-Western countries towards Europe and took the Europeans to task over their attitude, which he feels is petty and stuffy. He said that the desire of the Turkish citizens to become members of the EU is very much in the minority. According to opinion polls, the same is true of the stance taken by the European citizens towards Turkish accession. This gives us leave to wonder why efforts are not focusing on seeking an alternative option to allow both sides to work closely together. (FR/transl.fl)