Brussels, 23/03/2012 (Agence Europe) - On 22 March, Cedefop, the European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training, published its latest skills forecast for the European Union for 2010-2020. It reveals that the demand for skills is not always in line with supply, leading to increased risk of mismatches. Despite the current high unemployment levels, there are indications of skills shortages, particularly in those sectors and professions where highly specialised qualifications are required.
Cedefop expects a net increase in employment of 8 million new jobs between 2010 and 2020 and around 75 million will be generated to replace workers who leave the labour market. The forecast says that, although further economic troubles will affect the projected number of job opportunities, the major trends, including a shift to more skill-intensive jobs and more jobs in services, will continue. The crisis has slowed the immediate demand, leading many people to take jobs for which they are overqualified. When over-qualification remains temporary, it does not necessarily present a problem. “Concerns over possible mismatches should not discourage people from seeking higher qualifications. A highly-qualified workforce is one of - if not the - most important factor for Europe's competitiveness”, said Cedefop's Acting Director Christian Lettmayr.
The main trends for 2010-2020 flagged up by Cedefop are: (1) most job opportunities will still be for jobs requiring medium-level qualifications (including many vocational qualifications) which will continue to employ around half of Europe's workforce; (2) services, including tourism, health care and IT, are still expected to provide most job growth in the years up to 2020, though at a slightly slower rate; (3) types and levels of qualifications in the workforce vary between member states and there are only limited signs of convergence; (4) the proportion of people with high-level qualifications should rise to more than a third of the workforce; (5) there is no significant negative impact (or brain drain) due to people leaving one member state to work in another; however, most Europeans prefer not to move to find a job in another member state or outside the EU, even though they may have the qualifications; (6) employers point to shortages linked to too few young people studying science, technology, engineering or mathematics and report on skill shortages in specific professions.
Cedefop says that, despite persistent difficulties, the EU is well on track to reach its targets to raise the qualification levels of the workforce, which is good news and important for economic recovery. However, “given the current economic situation, further efforts are needed to reduce mismatch and to ensure that Europe gets the best out of the most highly qualified and most talented workforce in its history”. (IL/transl.rt)