Brussels, 13/02/2012 (Agence Europe) - IPEMED, the French Institute for Mediterranean Studies, has published a study entitled “Mediterranean in 2030”, an outlook which attempts to explore the “routes to a better future” on the basis of the “complementarities to be exploited” and “common challenges to be faced”.
The “regional dimension” in the Mediterranean area is “certain”, says the study. There is a “rich web of economic, institutional and human relations” to support this theory, even though “at first sight, the diagnosis is not immediately favourable to Mediterranean integration”. This diagnosis establishes that “the convergence of income is struggling to take shape” between the countries of the Mediterranean area; “commercial and capital exchanges have progressed less there” than with the other emerging countries. The investment of the Gulf states is misleading, “targeted more towards the development of real estate, telecommunications and, to a lesser extent, financial services”. The study adds that “the diversification of trade in goods and capital could constitute an opportunity if they were accompanied by an increase in the technological range and level, allowing increases in productivity favourable to growth and employment”. Relations with the EU have not contributed to this, “the centrifugal dynamics of Europe have not led to a major flow of investment, currently stagnating around 2%”, not allowing “significant technological transfers or industrial co-contracting similar to that organised with the countries of Eastern Europe or within emerging Asia”.
In order to build a common future, the study stresses the threats of the marginalisation of the region and the divergences which could discourage the creation of this joint zone of growth, complementarities and solidarity. “What can be done to favour Mediterranean convergence?”, asks IPEMED and all of the study institutes (CARIM, CIHEAM, FEMISE, OME) it has federated for this report. First of all, the study looks at "growth scenarios for the Mediterranean in 2030" and "employment prospects", which have been central to the demands which have led to the dramatic events still underway in the region, political crises in the South, economic and financial crises in the North. The question of “migration flows and demographic transition” was also discussed. The analysis also raised the “energy prospects in the Mediterranean” and the issues around this subject. Lastly, it looked at food security and agriculture in a Mediterranean area marginalised even within the European Community, and which is struggling to have its specific nature recognised. However, according to the study, “the regional complementarities are patent. The Mediterranean is first of all a space in which collective preferences of individuals converge due to the importance of migration, where the movement of ideas and people goes hand-in-hand with greater homogeneity of ways of life and aspirations.” But this complementarity should not be limited to an “asymmetrical commercial complementarity”, between a South which is just a “purveyor of natural resources and primary goods with low added value” and a North which sells “more expensive, sophisticated goods”.
A raft of scenarios has been proposed, based, amongst other things, on human factors (employment, capital human, migration) and energy issues (an area which is considered essential to build this complementarity, which appears unavoidable), but also agricultural factors. Given the fact that “in 20 years, the region will be home to 100 million more inhabitants, the vast majority of whom will live in cities or urban areas”, this trend will increase. The result will be a notable change due to “the increase in living standards and changing eating habits of the new urban dwellers, which will bring about great changes in consumption practices”. Overall, “individual food consumption of vegetable products will continue to drop in favour of the consumption of meat and dairy products and processed products made from animal products. This demand ratio away from vegetable towards animal will be combined with an increase in demand for vegetable products for animal consumption, but also for the production of agricultural fuels”. Eating habits will move away from the “Cretan model”.
In this area as well, “a number of scenarios are possible, from the worst-case scenario of the crisis of the Mediterranean, marked by increasing breakdowns and dissymmetry, to a desirable scenario, that of Mediterranean convergence, which could be achieved through divergences of inclusion rates in a globalised economy, the scenario of Mediterranean divergences.” As things stand, agricultural trade remains imbalanced, to a greater or lesser extent depending on the partner country. Euro-Mediterranean agricultural trade, therefore, remains sharply asymmetrical. Whereas just 2% of agricultural imports and exports from Europe are destined for the countries of the southern and eastern Mediterranean, the EU absorbs more than 50% of the agricultural exports of these countries and 30% of their agricultural imports. Although Turkey has gradually become an agricultural and agro-food power, Morocco and Tunisia manage, in good agricultural years (ones with high rainfall) to achieve trade balances with the EU, whilst Egypt and Algeria are an important weight in the global deficit of these countries. The observation is that “cereals dependency persists” for the countries of the southern and eastern Mediterranean region. They “take up nearly 15% of global cereals imports, whilst representing just 4% of the world's population”.
According to the conclusions, there is “possibly room for the creation of new concerted agricultural and agro-food policies in the north and south of the Mediterranean” and globally, a “co-development scenario” is suggested. (FB/transl.fl)