The EU is not the same as the eurozone. The tragedy of Greece is so beset with misunderstanding and misinformation - or downright untruths - and is so often accompanied by positions based more on ideology than reality, that it is virtually impossible to discuss it properly and a make healthy judgment without first establishing some key facts.
Understandably, people talk and write about the Greeks with sympathy, as if Europe had left the people themselves by the wayside. By 'Europe' here, people deliberately or simply through ignorance talk as if the Europe (the European Union) was the same thing as the eurozone. It is not. Greece is part of the EU and the idea that it should leave Europe has never been considered. The EU provides aid and will continue to provide aid to the Greek people through a string of funds, making it easier for Greece to be given finance by relaxing the eligibility criteria, helping the country through EU common policies and using all the sources of finance available to help out. All this goes ahead irrespective of whether Greece is in the eurozone or not.
The euro is totally separate and different requirements govern the management of the eurozone. The eurozone could be compared to a club that one joins up to, knowing what the rules are and promising to respect them. In the event of difficulties, aid mechanisms exist and they will be extended, but respecting the rules remains a precondition for the euro operating properly and a single country going off the rails, no matter how small the country is, has repercussions for all the club. Anyone who cheats has to make amends if he is to remain in the club, otherwise the club itself will fall apart. Right from the start, Greece had been fiddling the figures. It is entitled to aid, but is not entitled to take the euro down. We must not be afraid to say this loud and clear because allowing the Greek situation to continue indefinitely without correction would amount, in reality, to calling for the end of the euro.
Reading between the lines. Against this backdrop, the official position has not changed - Greece has its place in the eurozone if it meets the conditions. As soon as any doubts are expressed about this, whether by journalists or a European commissioner, then this disagreement is voiced from all sources. However, as the situation drags on and in light of comments from some sources, I get the impression that something is changing and people are beginning to consider paving the way for a different process. People are no longer quite so adamant about the fact that a Greek default would bring down other countries in the eurozone and lead to its destruction. It is now being hinted that the eurozone would survive. In other words, Greece leaving the eurozone would not destroy the single currency.
Two stubborn facts. The above comments explain why the strings attached to aid for Greece are so stringent, why the Eurogroup failed to reach agreement on Thursday 9 February and why the talks will continue next week. Germany's demand for the Greek government to be monitored to make sure it meets its promises was not accepted by the other member states, which saw this as humiliating for Greece, but the idea of making proper introduction of the Greek government's promises and proper reforms in the country a precondition for the payment of European funding has not gone away.
There are two reasons for this: (a) the Greek government has not yet managed to meet any of its commitments; and (b) Greek public opinion seems to increasingly favour leaving the eurozone rather than agreeing to the conditions and sacrifices required to remain in the single currency.
Austerity across the board. There is something positive and encouraging about the austerity measures introduced in most of the eurozone nations, and this goes for Greece as well, namely the demand for past mistakes and abuse to be corrected - the waste of public money, tax evasion, inefficient civil services and so on. Governments are taking action everywhere to deal with this, and this is needed in Greece more than anywhere else because it is well known that tax avoidance is rife in the country, the civil service is highly corrupt, there is virtually no record of real estate ownership or tax records for shipping, and the list goes on.
But does calling on Greece to solve all this in such a short period of time mean that it might have to leave the eurozone, for a while at least? Leaving the euro would cause a whole heap of further problems to be resolved, so there is hesitation. I sometimes get the impression that it is the banks that are hesitating, rather than the politicians. Some of the stubbornness of the European institutions, including the European Commission, raises other questions, to which I will be returning.
(FR/transl.fl)