Here are a few quick thoughts on the outcome of the summit which could very well open a new era in the way Europe is constructed and how its operates.
Detachment of the United Kingdom comes as no surprise. The reactions of astonishment, or even stupefaction, to the British decision to detach itself seem to me to be somewhat surprising. It is a detachment that has been well trailed. The United Kingdom has in practice already been largely separated, not taking part in several points that are essential to European construction, including, for example, the passport-free area. Furthermore, Prime Minister David Cameron has made no secret of his country's desire for independence in deciding whether or not to take part in each of the common goals. I do not share the view that, through the British attitude, the EU has already begun to shrink. Rather the opposite is true: the EU will continue to grow - but at differing speeds (see following point).
“Two-speed Europe” and its effect. The decisions in principle agreed on arrangements for the eurozone and on the conditions for membership of the eurozone, in fact, anticipate a two-speed Europe, because of the (almost) automatic nature of the arrangements that will be brought in. Despite the efforts of Warsaw and a few others, the division between the two groups of countries (those in the eurozone and those outside) will be clear. This could have a dual effect: speeding up the accessions that are currently under discussion and accentuating the “two-speed” principle. Poland would do well to keep this in mind when it advocates and supports enlargement to include a number of eastern European countries.
The institutional problem remains. Will the new treaty be inter-governmental (a well-used adjective), with the sole aim of showing that the various governments will themselves decide whether to take part or not, or is this a foretaste of what it will be like? This is a key point and the summit has already delivered some answers. However, firm stances were taken on the conditions that would make the treaty acceptable. Guy Verhofstadt, in particular, immediately adopted a firm position, stating as a precondition that “the Community method and democratic control must be respected” - that is, the powers of the European Parliament and the Commission, for example. As was foreseen, the “institutional problem” (the balance between the Community and the inter-governmental methods) remains. Indeed, it is becoming ever more complex. (FR/transl.rt)