Brussels, 08/03/2011 (Agence Europe) - Bringing forward a “Roadmap for transforming the European Union into a competitive low carbon economy by 2050” in these uncertain times with revolutions in North Africa, economic problems in Europe, oil and food price increases, is a huge challenge. European Climate Action Commissioner Connie Hedegaard readily acknowledged as much in Strasbourg on Tuesday 8 March as she presented the Commission communication, adopted that same day, to the press (see EUROPE 10330). But cutting carbon is, she said, absolutely essential because it is important to be more thoughtful in the search for growth in the 21st century.
The roadmap adopted by the college of commissioners paves the way for this shift, providing viable, practical pathways and, for the first time, listing the targets for the key sectors of the economy, such as energy, transport, industry, construction and agriculture which make up the collective target.
This detailed assessment is based on solid analysis, using modelling, Hedegaard said. The Commission's starting-point hypotheses are: - an 80% reduction in the EU's emissions by 2050 through domestic action alone, as there is no cheap way to achieve this objective other than in Europe; - if the shift to a low-carbon economy has to be made now, it makes no sense to invest millions of euro in third countries, such as China, by means of offsets; - the scenarios presented by the Commission for a resource-efficient Europe and for a long-term strategy to address climate change are based on proven technology, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS), which will be much more widely used from 2020-2025; - the viable scenario for the EU is not a 20% reduction in emissions by 2020 compared with 1990 levels (the unilateral target adopted in international negotiations), but 25%. This objective can only be reached if the member states increase their efforts to achieve their energy efficiency target (20% energy savings by 2020). By 2030, the target for emissions reduction should be 40%.
It is not about setting new targets, but stating what has to be done to achieve them, Hedegaard said. The target of a 30% reduction in emissions by 2020 is, she said, still on the table. She said that what was being presented was good for economic health and good for business. “We need to start the transition towards a competitive low carbon economy now. The longer we wait, the higher the cost will be”, the commissioner said.
More targeted use of cohesion funds could be of real assistance to the member states which are lagging behind on energy efficiency (Romania and Bulgaria, for example), but even the countries which are leading the way, such as Sweden and Denmark, “can also improve their performances”.
Managing a carbon-free economy in 2050 will indeed require massive investment, the cost of which is estimated at an annual €270 billion over the next 40 years. This may seem a great deal but this extra cost must be looked at in respect of the fuel savings of between €175 and €230 billion annually. This could be even €400 billion, if fossil fuel imports are reduced by half. According to the commissioner, therefore, this is a profitable investment, and it is necessary to return to the pre-crisis level of investment. The Commission stressed the potential of a green and innovative economy, saying that it could create 1.5 million jobs.
Environmental NGOs such as Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth Europe are disappointed as a 25% emissions reduction in 2020 (instead of 30% or 40%) and of 80% (instead of 95%) by 2050 will, they say, surely lead to the objective of a 2° Celsius rise in average temperature on the surface of the planet being exceeded. (A.N./transl.rt/jl)