Has the “two-state” solution become unavoidable? It is understandable that the European Commission launched an immediate appeal to the new elected president of Northern Cyprus, to continue negotiations on the reunification of the island in the way they were developing. In my opinion, however, this will remain just another number on the wish list and will have no effect at all. Dervis Eroglu based his election campaign on an explicit objective: the division of Cyprus into two parts and the creation of two sovereign states. He will undoubtedly be obliged to pursue negotiations with the president of Southern Cyprus, Demetris Christofias and will make a number of reassuring declarations. He may prove flexible on a few points contained in his election campaign positions but he will not accept the principles on which, according to the “Greek” side, the future unified state should be founded. The creation of two states has been rejected by the officially recognised (except by Turkey) Republic of Cyprus; but it is now a formal objective on the other side of the island and will gradually become a reality on the ground, even if there is still some hope that reasonable arrangements will allow for improved coexistence, help facilitate the life of citizens and improve the economic situation.
The way forward, however, to genuine reunification in the foreseeable future, appears on hold.
A number of preliminary studies gave the impression that there had been a chnage among Turkish Cypriots with regard to the importance that they gave to joining the EU and their wish to re-establish normal relations with the other side of the island. The result of the vote, however, appears to indicate that the majority of the population in Northern Cyprus continues to consider its origin and ethnic group as a priority and that it intends to conserve and consolidate its autonomy.
Negotiations with Turkey are practically at a standstill. The development that has taken place in Cyprus should be examined from several points of view, including those regarding the repercussions on Turkey's prospects of joining the European Union. In my opinion, the events in Cyprus reinforce scepticism with regard to EU accession. Even if we leave aside the fact that Turkey is not entirely applying the normal Customs Union with an EU member state and the almost incredible anomaly involving military occupation of part of Community territory, accession negotiations are effectively at a halt. They are continuing on a number of chapters on a routine basis but the number of essential chapters upon which, for one reason or another, negotiations are not going forward, is quite impressive (see EUROPE 10121). It should be highlighted that negotiations are not going on in any of the domains that imply accession is the end goal.
France and Germany have confirmed and consolidated their opposition to the very principle of Turkish accession. In recent meetings with M. Erdogan, Ms Merkel and Mr Sarkozy have reiterated their support for a privileged partnership. At the same time, opportunities for developing closer links have been enlarged and strengthened in both the economic and cultural domains. In this connection, the success of the “Turkish Season” in France and the increased number of Turkish schools in Germany bear testimony to this. Prospects for cooperation are largely positive. The result of these attitudes can therefore be summed up in an often-used formula, “cooperation and friendship do not require accession”.
A lot of room for cooperation and friendship. The formula quoted above confirms misgivings about accession but does not at all imply any feeling of hostility towards Turkey. In my case, it would be rather the contrary. The links between the Mediterranean part of Turkey and the history of European civilisation are both blindingly important and obvious, at least from the time of Troy, and Aeneas, the legendary founder of Rome, and right up to this multicultural city, firstly called Byzantium, then Constantinople and now today, Istanbul.
The reasons, however, that exclude accession are unambiguously decisive. Geographically, Turkey is essentially an immense Asian territory, including its capital. Its cultural, linguistic and historic ties with Asian countries of the former (and historically, not so distant) Ottoman Empire remain very strong and increasingly determine Ankara's foreign policy. Turkish domestic problems, whether these involve the Kurds or Armenians or relations between the civil power and the army don't concern Europe. This column will return to this issue tomorrow.
(F.R.)