Return to growth will be slow and steady for European tourism sector after particularly poor 2009. The last three months of 2009 show a return to growth for the European tourism sector. Prospects for 2010 are favourable and growth is set to continue, the European Travel Commission (ETC) stresses in its latest quarterly report for 2009 ("Trends & Prospects - Quarterly report 4/2009"). However, this recovery must be compared with 2008 figures, which were particularly poor for the final quarter, and good results from other parts of the world. According to statistics from the World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO), international arrivals to Europe fell -1.1% in the last quarter of 2009, compared to the same period in 2008, making Europe the region of the world which experienced the worst performance for this. However, this decline is smaller than one recorded in the third quarter (-3.1%). By way of comparison, the American continent recorded a fall in growth of 0.5%, whereas other regions saw an increase (+5.2% in Asia-Pacific, +8.0% in Africa and +9.8% in the Middle East). In Europe, very few countries saw growth in tourist arrivals during the first 9 to 11 months of 2009. Only Iceland and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM) registered an increase. Most of the other European countries suffered a decline between -5% and -12%, with others being hit by an even greater reversal in fortunes (between -15% and -25%). This was the case in Ireland, Lithuania, Latvia, Romania and Slovakia. The report highlighted another trend linked to the economic backdrop: Europeans are travelling more in their own or neighbouring countries. This tendency was more clearly visible in western and northern Europe and less so in central and eastern Europe, where the economic recession is forcing people to do without their holiday altogether. Another trend is that European tourists are waiting until the last minute before travelling, surfing the internet more to find cheaper deals and keeping their spending down whilst away. They are also travelling less through the year, preferring to sacrifice short breaks in order to keep their annual main holiday. Aviation traffic in the passenger sector, for European airlines, did not leave the red until the end of November 2009. Improvement, however, was very small and comparable to the particularly poor statistics from 2008. Figures for long-haul flights, on the other hand, were better than for intra-Europe connections. Overnight hotel stays fell, with people opting instead for campsites or renting houses or flats. The decline was less in the final three months of the year, with -2% for the occupation rate of hotels in the month of November, compared to a drop of -6.9% over the whole of the year. The smallest drops were to be found in the United Kingdom and Sweden, Malta, Germany, France, Italy and Belgium also come out relatively well, with the steepest drops recorded in Eastern Europe. The price for overnight stays in hotels has also fallen: an average of -12% in EUROPE 2009 as a whole, -15% more specifically in northern Europe and up to -25% in central and eastern Europe. As regards travel in Europe by people from non-European countries, trips from the United States fell by 4% over the first 10 months of 2009. This trend is unlikely to be reversed in 2010, despite economic recovery in the United States, which can be attributed to a Euro which remains strong and relatively high travel costs. Although the old continent remains a favourite destination of the Canadians, more of these are going to Asia, Oceania and South America. A number of European countries have been hit by a sharp drop in tourism from Canada, among these the United Kingdom (-21%), Ireland (-21%), Germany (-17%) and Portugal (-31% for overnight hotel stays). Japan remains a market which is closed off to Europe, as most Japanese tourists prefer to do their travelling in Asia. The travel rate from Japan the 2009 was the lowest since 2003. Japanese travellers who do decide to come to Europe are particularly tempted by Cyprus (+55%). Although there are no statistics available, China is starting to record a considerable increase in travel overseas, with growth of +4% in 2009, with Switzerland a popular choice, even though Asian countries remain the number one destination for Chinese tourists. (I.L./transl.fl)