EU's absence. There was a significant development in the major energy manoeuvring this August that could effect European energy supplies - but the EU as such did not take part. By this, I mean that Turkey has signed up to the South Stream project, the gas pipeline that will carry gas from Russia and other sources across the Black Sea to Bulgaria and Romania before dividing into two directions, one towards Greece and Italy and the other towards Hungary and Austria, not to mention the Czech Republic and Serbia. Under the new agreement between Russia and Turkey, the latter has opened up its maritime waters to allow the gas pipeline to pass, in exchange for the right to have access to the gas carried and for Turkish participation in the undertaking. Both signatory countries have highlighted the attractiveness of the deal signed last month in Ankara by Prime Ministers Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The prime minister of an EU country attended the ceremony and took part in the final press conference. That prime minister was Silvio Berlusconi, who underlined the role he played as mediator, which can be explained by the fact that the project managers for the gas pipeline are ENI of Italy and Gazprom of Russia.
Community institutions did not take part in the talks and had not been invited to the ceremony. There is nothing new about this in the field of energy. Despite the growing volumes of Community legislation in this sector, and its importance, many initiatives and decisions remain national. The delay in the entry into force of the Lisbon Treaty (that is to open the road to a common energy policy) makes the situation even more protracted - and member states responsible for this cannot complain. Furthermore, the autonomy of private operators and large companies is more and more of a legend, if not an illusion. In Russia, Gazprom has always been one of the essential instruments of the country's foreign policy. In the western world, the power of certain oil giants has sometimes maintained a balance but, in Europe at least, the role of the public authorities is increasingly dominant, which is only logical given the strategic importance of energy supply. In the case in hand, at any rate, decisions relating to territorial waters are taken by the states. The Russia/Turkey agreement, moreover, also comprises elements concerning the transport of oil.
Two particular aspects. Development of the South Stream project involves two other aspects:
a) Impact on Ukraine. The South Stream gas pipeline could cross the Black Sea either through Turkish waters or through Ukrainian waters. Russia has chosen the second possibility and, according to Mr Berlusconi, this is a natural choice given the current state of relations between Moscow and Kiev. In the meantime, Ukraine has obtained the necessary international funding to carry out essential reform in its energy sector and to eliminate (or radically reduce) the risks of another crisis with Russia, which would affect EU energy supply security. It can therefore be said that the situation is improving but that, for now, Ukraine continues to pay for past failings.
b) Relations between South Stream and Nabucco. During the Putin/Erdogan/Berlusconi press conference (held jointly although, some sources say, Mr Erdogan would have preferred to hold a bilateral meeting), it was underlined that the two projects do not vie with one another. According to ENI President Paolo Scaroni, they are not in opposition to each other but rather complementary, giving diversification of supply sources. He did, however, reaffirm that, in his opinion, it is not clear where the gas that is to supply sufficient quantities to Nabucco will come from. On other occasions, he had expressed doubt about how the project would be realised, due to the uncertainty prevailing over supplies and operating rules, as those owning the installation do not own the gas carried.
Those promoting the project obviously do not share the same doubts, putting their faith not only in the diversification of supplies with Iraqi Kurdistan and Iran in mind (although the political situation in the latter means one must not say too much on this), but also in the operating system (gas belonging to users of the installation).
Europe is indispensable. It is obvious that there is some rivalry between the two projects and that the time needed for carrying them out will play an essential role. Some experts take the view that gas and oil reserves in the zone in question exceed those of OPEC. Exploitation of such resources nonetheless requires technological capacity and financial availability which only EU member states have. Europe's participation is therefore essential. It would also be more effective if it were, as far as possible, to work as a whole, single entity. (F.R./transl.jl)