Developments on summit fringes. Energy questions will be discussed at length during the EU-Russia summit this week but no decision or significant development is expected (for an overview of this summit, important from several points of view, see EUROPE 9904). The European delegation will reaffirm the principles from the Energy Charter, which Russia signed but has not ratified, and those in its protocol on transit, which the EU believes are still valid and should be respected in one form or another in the new partnership agreement planned. The EU will point out that Russia is committed to re-establishing oil supplies to Baltic countries through the Dhruzba pipeline. The agreement on the new early warning mechanism in the event of cuts in supply will be confirmed but does not go into any detail.
Italian-Russian South Stream agreement signed. In the meantime, what really counts is happening elsewhere. The big manoeuvres outlining and preparing the routes along which Europe will be supplied in natural gas in the future, made another step forward: the agreement on the construction of South Stream was signed by two giants in the energy field: Gazprom and ENI. The Russian and Italian authorities did not hide or underplay the political significance of this event, on the contrary, the two prime ministers, Vladimir Putin and Silvio Berlusconi, attended the agreement signing and held the final press conference. Once again, it is not the EU that has acted but a member state, in agreement with other countries whose power companies are involved in the project: Austria, Hungary, Greece, Bulgaria, Croatia and Serbia. The national autonomy of member states, which leaves the Community institutions in the shadows, is a result of, as we are aware, the absence of the Lisbon Treaty, which could have opened the door to a European energy policy. The day will come when the people who give into the siren calls of the Euro-sceptics understand to what extent they have been fooled. Let's hope for their sake that it will not be too late. Do they prefer to keep their autonomy when dealing with Russia? It's up to them.
South Stream is a colossal project (crossing the Black Sea means that the gas pipeline will go down 200 metres below the sea) and is expected to be up and running in 2015. Those in charge of the project have decided to double the capacity initially planned. In a reply at a press conference to someone who had pointed out that the EU would subsequently become more dependent on Russia, Vladimir Putin stated, “the pipes link producers and consumers in an insoluble way: dependency is reciprocal”. The president of ENI pointed out that gas production in the Netherlands and North Sea will fall significantly in the next few years, which was why South Stream is indispensable.
Uncertainties and incidents involving Nabucco. Will the route of South Stream's competitor, Nabucco, whose route bypasses Russia (as well as the Ukraine), go through the Caspian Sea and Turkey? Only gas from Azerbaijan is for the time being ensured. If Nabucco is to be profitable, it also needs gas from Iraqi Kurdistan and Iran. Political uncertainties clearly persist. A memorandum of understanding on energy is expected to be signed between the EU and Iraq soon, the text for it has already been prepared. As for Iran, the Community institutions are not shifting (those who blocked or are still blocking the Lisbon Treaty should again be thanked for this) and Europe is dependent on what the US and Russia do. A pragmatic and conciliatory Vladimir Putin indicated that his country, together with its allies in the region, could help to supply Nabucco. The EU is continuing to work ferociously on this dossier and the Southern Corridor Summit on 8 May in Prague set out a deadline for signing the intergovernmental Nabucco agreement, including that for the transit arrangement with Turkey, for the end of June. Turkey, however, is demanding that the “energy” chapter in its accession negotiations be kept open in the meantime (it is being blocked by Cyprus) and has not lifted its veto on French participation in the project, due to the fact that the French Senate uses the term “genocide” when it refers to the Armenian tragedy of last century.
There is also the ITGI project, which is already being carried out and whose Azerbaijan-Turkey-Greece-Italy itinerary will also avoid going through Russia. In this project, Mr Putin also said that he was prepared to participate in its supply. Bulgaria has asked to be able to participate in the project. The EU has acknowledged the European interest and will help in its funding. Its production capacity, however, will be much lower than South Stream and Nabucco's.
It is apparent that energy relations between the EU and Russia are complex and many-sided. Russia has the advantage of speaking with a single voice, which is not yet the case for the EU. We could add the issue of the Arctic to the chapters already mentioned, which is melting.
(F.R./transl.rh)