2009 could be one toughest years in aviation history. - According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), airlines registered losses of $5bn in 2008. For the whole of the year, international freight traffic declined by 4.0%, whilst the number of airline passengers grew slightly (1.6%). For 2009 losses have been estimated at $2.5bn. The IATA is also predicting a fall of 3.0% in airline passengers, a 5.0% fall in freight and a 3.0% fall in dividends. Industry revenue is expected to fall by $35bn, from a figure of $536bn in 2008 to $501bn in 2009. “2009 is shaping up to be one of the toughest years ever for international aviation. The 22.6% drop in international cargo traffic in December puts us in un-charted territory,” said Giovanni Bisignani, Director General and IATA CEO. According to Bisignani, “there is no clearer description of the slowdown in world trade. Even in September 2001, when much of the global fleet was grounded, the decline was only 13.9%”. Bolstered by year-end advance-booked leisure travel, the 4.6% decline in December passenger demand was less dramatic than the fall in cargo. A 1.5% cutback in supply could not keep pace with falling demand, resulting in a 2.4% decline in the December load factor to 73.8%. In detail: - Passenger traffic: full-year traffic results show a 1.6% increase in demand which is dramatically down from the 7.4% recorded in 2007. Capacity grew by 3.5% resulting in a full-year average load factor of 75.9% (down from the 77.3% recorded for 2007). A regional summary for December traffic showed that Asia Pacific carriers saw the sharpest decline in December international traffic at 9.7%. They also registered the sharpest reduction in capacity, but at 5.6%, this is lagging behind the drop in demand. The economic turmoil in the region is widespread. European carriers saw demand for international travel fall by 2.7% while capacity declined by 1.5%. Load factors stood at the global average of 73.8%. North American airlines also saw December demand drop by 4.3%, far outstripping the 0.7% cut in international capacity. The region did, however, record the highest load factor at 78.1%. African carriers continued to see their traffic fall in December, despite more robust economies and travel to the continent than other regions. International passenger traffic declined 4.6% in December. The 2.1% reduction in capacity left load factors at 68.5%, the lowest among the regions. Latin American airlines recorded a 1.1% increase in December demand and a 3.2% increase in capacity. With North American commodities' demand and trade falling so sharply, the months ahead are likely to be more difficult for airlines in this region. Carriers in the Middle East showed a 3.9% increase in demand in December, far below the 10% capacity increase. The region's carriers ended five years of double-digit growth with full-year demand growing by 7.0% (compared to 18.1% recorded for 2007). Growth will continue to slow in 2009 as oil revenues and long-haul hub connection traffic are now both in decline. - Freight Traffic: full year international air freight traffic contracted 4.0% for the year compared to 4.3% growth in 2007. December saw an unprecedented 22.6% decline in air freight volumes, compared with the previous year. All regions showed major declines. The collapse in the airline industry's freight business is a reflection of 20-30% declines in export and import volumes being reported across Asia, North America and Europe as the global recession plumbs new depths in December. Asia-Pacific carriers, accounting for 45% of international cargo, led the December decline with a 26.0% contraction compared to the previous year. Latin American carriers saw cargo drop 23.7%; North American carriers 22.2% and European carriers 21.2%. Single-digit declines were recorded by Middle Eastern carriers (-9.2%) and African carriers (-8.0%). (I.L./transl.rh)