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Image header Agence Europe
Europe Daily Bulletin No. 9782
Contents Publication in full By article 16 / 29
GENERAL NEWS / (eu) eu/trade

Risk of fall in world trade in 2009

Brussels, 13/11/2008 (Agence Europe) - On the eve of the Washington summit on reform of the international financial system, further bad news is expected to spur the leaders of the G20 economic powers into asserting their commitment to open markets and concluding the Doha negotiations. Invited by Pascal Lamy on 12 November to speak in Geneva, together with other representatives from the international financial institutions and banks on the financial crisis and effects on trade, the president of the World Bank, Robert Zoellick, forecast a decline in world trade in 2009, the first time this has occurred since 1982. 80% of the fall is due to credit crunch, hitting the emerging economies harder and which have been the driving force of growth in the world and not only due to a slackening off in demand. The WTO has recorded a fall in world trade of 8.5% in 2006 and 6% in 2007 and shares the same fear. Its director general deplores the “serious deterioration” in financing trade since the beginning of the financial crisis and has identified a $25bn shortfall in liquidity. This situation is expected to worsen in the next few months. The question is even more crucial because Mr Lamy considers that 90% of international trade is based on short term lending. To make good this shortfall in liquidity for trade, which it considers as the “oxygen for developing countries”, Lamy calls for government action and Doha to be swiftly concluded. He is expected to repeat this call at the G20 on 15 November in Washington and which the free-trade coalition led by Germany and the United Kingdom in the EU (EUROPE 9776) and supported by Commissioner Catherine Ashton (EUROPE 9781) and internationally by Australia and Brazil, are expected to echo. (E.H./trans/rh)

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