Brussels, 28/06/2006 (Agence Europe) - As we announced in our edition of 24 June (EUROPE 9218), some 50 trade ministers representing the trade powers and main negotiating groups at the WTO (Cairns group, G10, G20, G33 and G90) will be meeting in Geneva from 29 June to July at the headquarters of the multilateral organisation to try to hammer out a compromise on the details (figures and other provisions ) for liberalisation in the field of agriculture and manufactured goods (NAMA). With the first bilateral or multilateral talks starting on Wednesday, Europeans, Americans and Brazilians have been making more and more promises under the heading of agriculture over the last few days to try to break the deadlock on Doha Round talks. The major players in world trade seem perfectly well aware of the risk of failure hanging over the negotiations, which are very seriously compromising any chances of concluding a round given over mainly to development this year.
Since the ministerial conference held in Hong Kong last December, where the 149 member countries of the WTO reached a minimal agreement consolidating the framework agreement of August 2004 (EUROPE 9093), the stakes remain the same: the European Union, the United States and the emerging countries of the G20 are under pressure to make further concessions on the agriculture and NAMA planks, which are the main stumbling blocks to a global agreement (focusing also on services, the facilitation of trade and rules). Whereas more efforts are expected on the part of the Twenty Five in terms of access to the agricultural market (which translates into a reduction in customs duty on the agricultural products they import), Washington still needs further to reduce internal support paid to its farmers and the emerging economies (South Africa, Brazil, China, India and Mexico) are called upon to make concessions on the tariffs applied to imports of manufactured products.
At this stage, the three major players have said that they are prepared to make concessions, but very few of these come with specific figures. Proof of this lies in the 760 pairs of brackets featuring in the draft compromise, which should house the figures of an agricultural compromise. For the Americans, promising "difficult decisions", President George W. Bush has indicated that Washington may agree to more limits on its internal aid (going beyond a reduction of 53% of the maximum allowed ceiling) and moderate its requirements in terms of market access (improving on an average reduction of agricultural customs duties of 65%). Brazil, the chef de file of the emerging countries, believes that a minimum agreement in Geneva this week can be achieved and to facilitate this, declares that it is prepared to improve its proposal on the reduction of customs tariffs on manufactured goods (currently standing at 50% on average). The main European negotiator, Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson, has reiterated on several occasions that he could stay within the scope of the mandate conferred upon him by the Member States of the Union and still improve the European agricultural offer, as long as there is a significant movement on the part of the United States and the emerging countries. Without giving any figures (EUROPE has given a detailed overview of the concessions which he may be looking at, see 9212), Mr Mandelson has nonetheless stated that he is prepared to bring the European offer of October 2005 "closer, but not all the way" to the demands of the G20 (54%) for the average reduction of agricultural customs duties (39%).
Before going into any details on his offer, Mr Mandelson will still have to convince the Twenty Five that he will not exceed the agricultural "red lines" of his negotiation mandate. After the commitment made by the Union in Hong Kong to remove export subsidies between now and 2013, and armed with the CAP reform decided on in 2003, which decouples aid to farmers from the volumes produced, thus effectively eliminating trade distortions brought about by internal support, the agricultural countries, led by France and Italy, are strongly resisting any reduction in agricultural customs duties. "With the concessions already granted, the Commission is at the end of its mandate", the French agriculture minister, Dominique Bussereau, told Les Echos on Wednesday (our translation). He went on to urge his colleagues to be "awake to the risk of a new purely cosmetic American agricultural offer". In Geneva, therefore, Mr Mandelson will be put under high surveillance by the Member State of the Union, who will be meeting, in parallel to the discussions underway at the WTO headquarters, at trade and agriculture Minister level, to assess the situation and influence the decisions of the top European negotiator. The first extraordinary meeting of the "External Relations" Council under the Austrian Presidency is planned for Thursday morning (29 June).
The Trade Commissioner will also be monitored very closely by the ACP countries, which, feeling "marginalised" in discussions at Geneva, met in Brussels on 26 and 27 June at commercial ministerial committee level to develop a joint position stressing their "interests" (their sensitive products) and their "concerns" (the removal of preferences which they had hitherto enjoyed).