I won't try and guess the future. In a few days' time the Convention Presidium is going to finalise its draft institutional Articles for the European Constitution and on 24 April they will become public knowledge. The leaks about the preliminary drafts which will still be subject to amendment is not my overriding passion. But the Informal Summit of Athens has provided a few elements for clarification (see our bulletin yesterday p 6 and the following), which deserve to be highlighted. They indicate that: a) efforts are being made to devise compromises between the very divergent positions of a few weeks ago; b) despite these efforts, strict divergences still exist and the debates in the Convention plenary to find the crucial consensus will not be easy.
I'll just examine some of the main aspects.
1. The President of the European Council. The fundamental disagreement between the large countries, supporting a full-time long term President, and the majority of the small countries which are strongly opposed, has not been resolved. Nevertheless, attempts at compromise are appearing. Valéry Giscard d'Estaing will be proposing to create this Presidency but the mandate could be set at two and a half years (half, then, of that of the Commission President) and especially the functions being well delineated: this could be a summit "Chairman" and not the "President of Europe". According to the Commission President, Romano Prodi, "this is open to discussion". On behalf of the Parliament, Pat Cox did not rule out all possibilities of finding solutions but posed a number of questions: who will elect the "Chairman" of the European Council? Who would be able to dismiss him? To whom would he be democratically accountable?
2. Council Presidencies: While recognising that "greater effectiveness required greater stability", Romano Prodi suggested a compromise between the rigid rotational compromise (the maintenance of which is being demanded by the small countries) and the stable Presidencies, namely: each Council grouping will elect its President for one or two years. This aspect will not figure among the five question son which Valéry Giscard d'Estaing will be posing to the Heads of Government and there is no discussion on the subject at Athens.
3. How the Council functions. Only Pat Cox, the President of the EP mentioned this important subject: that of the "double majority". He declared that, "the European Parliament believes that the legitimacy of the decisions taken by the Council will be ensured if this stipulated by the simple majority of its members representing a majority of the Union population. This double majority constitutes… a clear way of reconciling the points of view that are apparently un-reconcilable: the fear of the smallest Member States of being muzzled by the interests of the "large" counties and the fear of these latter countries being marginalised by a coalition of the small countries". This formula does not please the governments and I don't know what Valéry Giscard d'Estaing thinks about it.
4. The Minister of European Affairs. The reception for this idea was largely in favour. Joschka Fischer spoke of the "wide consensus" ( the condition as we are aware for its insertion into the draft constitutions). Judging by the indications available, Valéry Giscard d'Estaing favours the "two hats" (covering the current functions of Javier Solana and Chris Patten), which would constitute a Commission Vice President with a special status, receiving his instructions from the Council and exercising the functions of the current "Troika". On the other hand, he will not be allocated the role of Chairing the "External Relations" Council, which would remain in the hands of a national Foreign Affairs Minister (rotational).
Romano Prodi mentioned an important question that is often passed over in silence: the safeguard of the Commission's competencies in external policy that it is currently responsible for: trade, co-operation and development, humanitarian aid, environmental protection. He explained, "this does not involve taking into the Community remit that which stand outside it today (namely, CFSP and ESDP). But we cannot envisage going back to an intergovernmental system for that which is currently Community managed".
5. European Commission. On the composition of the Commission in the Europe of 25 members, the debate is closed: there will be a Commissioner for each country. And afterwards? We're none the wiser. As for the President of the Commission, Pat Cox strongly called for it to be the European Parliament 'and not some hybrid organisation), which appoints it, preferably by simple majority. VGE is very likely to object to this direction. Romano Prodi simply said that "several options are possible".
Two subjects that deserve more attention still need to be discussed: the "European Congress", uniting the EP and the national Parliaments (Valéry Giscard d'Estaing does not rule this out) and the Convention calendar. This will be for one of the next few days. (F.R.)