Summer was deadly at the land border between the European Union and Africa. The sudden arrival of tens of thousands of migrants in Ceuta caught the Spanish authorities by surprise and overwhelmed them, in late July.
The reaction of the European Christian Democratic family (EPP), of which the Spanish Partido Popular (PP), allied with the far-right party Vox, is a member, was immediate: the regularisation policy of Pedro Sánchez’s Socialist government, which is said to create a ‘pull factor for migration to the EU’, is solely to blame.
Regardless of the fact that this regularisation will primarily concern Latin Americans already present on Spanish territory and that the number of people concerned is equivalent to the half a million new entries authorised in Italy by the ‘Meloni’ government over the 2026-2028 period, following an equivalent wave of regularisation in 2023.
Thus, the Chair of the EPP party, German Manfred Weber, described the situation in Ceuta as “unacceptable”. The Spanish authorities are not beyond criticism. The situation remains tense in the enclave owing to a lack of resources and space to accommodate so many irregular migrants, including several thousand minors. Spain’s request for EU financial and logistical assistance was slow in coming, as was the attribution of any responsibility to the Moroccan authorities.
When the Ceuta migration crisis broke out, the European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, modelled her reaction on the stance of the EPP, her political family. The tone used towards Spain was very different from that adopted vis-à-vis Italy when Giorgia Meloni’s government was confronted with the Lampedusa crisis. In September 2023, Ms von der Leyen had gone there and immediately advocated “European solidarity” (see EUROPE 13252/7).
At the time, Spain had decided to take in migrants who had landed in Lampedusa, as Mr Sánchez also reminded his counterparts in the European Council after around 20 of them, including Danish Socialist Mette Frederiksen, criticised his regularisation policy. To thank him, Ms Meloni, also soon to be campaigning for her re-election, reintroduced border controls between Italy and Spain until end of September.
Since then, Ms von der Leyen has adjusted her position, praising in a letter addressed to Mr Sánchez, one of her earliest supporters for her reappointment at the head of the Commission, the way in which the Spanish authorities handled the crisis by returning the vast majority of irregular migrants and preventing any secondary movement onto the continent. She advocated continuing work at European level on five elements, including strengthening protection of the EU’s external borders in the event of mass arrivals, whether instrumentalised or not. Announcements are expected during her State of the Union address this Wednesday.
With elections looming next year in Spain, France and Italy, the tone is likely to rise another notch between the political forces that are supposed together to form, at European level, a stable majority at the centre of the political spectrum.
Since June 2024, the legislature has got off to a bad start. The Socialists, Christian Democrats and liberals failed to draw up a common programme politically binding them together. The sequence leading to the appointment of the college of Commissioners has left painful scars, following attempts by the Spanish right and far right to derail the appointment of their Socialist compatriot, Teresa Ribera. She owes her salvation to the block appointment of a college of Commissioners giving a vice-presidency to Italian Raffaele Fitto, Giorgia Meloni’s representative (see EUROPE 13531/1).
The EPP group, without which no majority is possible in the European Parliament, now chooses whichever majority suits it depending on the file. Mr Weber insists that the ‘von der Leyen’ majority holds firm most of the time. For the rest, his political family is content to formulate its own position. Is it its fault if that position attracts the votes of Eurosceptic Conservatives and the Europhobe far right on issues such as migration, climate action and deregulation in the name of economic competitiveness?
Even the position of the EU Council sometimes appears more moderate than that of a Parliament defending an alternative majority including “the noisy part” of the Chamber, in Ms von der Leyen’s words.
At a time when an important electoral sequence is beginning, do the Social Democrats have any interest in remaining the junior partner in a coalition scorned by the dominant partner?
Acknowledging the end of a shaky coalition would have the merit of clarity. In Germany, successive ‘Großen Kaolitionen’ encourage the blurring of political families and no longer prevent the far right from winning elections, at regional level for the time being.
In opposition, the European Social Democrats could redefine a progressive agenda for the EU: economic recovery through investment, defence of purchasing power, social and environmental justice, respect for fundamental rights and international law...
On managing the migration phenomenon, clarification is needed to put people back at the centre of concerns and highlight European solidarity. Otherwise, Mr Weber will play on the contradictions by praising Ms Frederiksen’s initiatives, which run counter to Mr Sánchez’s policy.
Acknowledging the end of a toxic relationship with the Christian Democrats would shine a brighter light on how the latter build their majorities in Parliament. Within the EPP group, the positions of national delegations are not always homogeneous. Some MEPs are indeed uncomfortable with their political family’s rightward drift, while others prefer to ally with the far right to win national elections.
For the Socialists, the risk is the status quo, which is currently translating into electoral defeats. During her State of the Union address, the President of the European Commission, having emerged unscathed from several motions of censure tabled by the far right and the radical left thanks to the Socialists, will stress the importance of the centrist majority in advancing her political programme.
As if by timetabling magic, proposals have just been made in the field of employment (see EUROPE 13938/2) and housing (see EUROPE 13934/15) to satisfy the European left. Others will follow on the climate front after the summer heatwave.
The mid-term election for the presidency of the European Parliament, in January 2027, will be a pivotal moment. The Social Democrats are calling for change, while the European Council, dominated by the EPP, will shortly afterwards be invited to decide on the reappointment of its President, Portuguese Socialist António Costa.
However, Maltese Christian Democrat Roberta Metsola is considering a historic third term, even if it means relying on Conservative votes. Her recent trip to Italy, where she praised Ms Meloni’s ‘common-sense’ policy, did not go unnoticed. For his part, Mr Weber is advocating stability, believing that the Presidents of the institutional triangle - Roberta Metsola, Ursula von der Leyen and António Costa - are doing a good job.
The decision whether or not to fight to secure the European Parliament presidency will illustrate the level of willingness among European Socialists to break with continuity from which they have little to gain.
(Original version in French by Mathieu Bion)