“This autumn will be the autumn of enlargement!”, declared the European Commissioner for Enlargement, Marta Kos, in Dublin, on Friday 4 September, ahead of an informal General Affairs Council devoted to that subject, as well as to the next European budget (see EUROPE 13931/2).
“2026 has already been an absolutely record year in this respect”, added Austrian Federal Minister for Europe, Claudia Bauer. “In the first eight months of the year, we have opened and closed more negotiating chapters than in the previous 25 years”, she further noted on the sidelines of this meeting, at which the EU27 welcomed representatives of a series of candidate - or potential candidate - countries, including Ukraine, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Moldova and Kosovo.
Like the Irish Minister for Europe, Thomas Byrne, and several of their counterparts, the Austrian conservative refused to allow the negative outcome of Iceland’s 29 August referendum to slow the momentum of enlargement in the EU (see EUROPE 13927/2). “Our progress, just like our credibility, will also be measured by our capacity to move forward with what is currently the most realistic accession candidate: Montenegro”, Claudia Bauer warned. Indeed, the Ad hoc Working Party (AHWP) tasked with drafting the accession treaty with Montenegro recently began its work.
However, uncertainty continues to surround the arrangements under which future members would join the EU, as the discussions in Dublin between the 27 ministers responsible for European affairs again showed. Several countries, including France and Germany, fear that an overly rapid accession process would allow newcomers to sidestep European standards, particularly on the rule of law, or to disrupt the EU’s decision-making process.
The ministers therefore discussed future “safeguard clauses”, intended to deter backsliding on the rule of law through potential sanctions (see EUROPE 13930/3). France, Germany and the Benelux countries favour a particularly stringent “non-regression clause”, while several Central and Eastern European countries are reluctant to treat future members differently.
The European Commission is expected to make proposals “by the end of September” on this issue, which is “a key point” of the accession treaty with Montenegro, as Thomas Byrne noted.
But safeguard clauses are only one part of the discussion. Commissioner Marta Kos once again defended the idea of “gradual accession”, which could see candidates join the EU without enjoying the full range of rights held by member countries.
For example, it is being considered that the governments concerned would not be able to vote in the areas of diplomacy, the budget or enlargement for a period of several years. This debate is closely linked to reflection on switching to qualified majority voting rather than unanimity (see EUROPE 13928/14). In fact, an EU with more than 30 Member States would multiply the risks of deadlock through the repeated use of the right of veto.
“This gradual accession is a way of resolving the contradiction between the geopolitical imperative [of enlargement] and the principle of merit-based accession, which means that the process takes time”, Marta Kos explained. “We should (...) allow candidate countries to be more closely connected to the EU before becoming full members”.
The risk, however, would be that of establishing a second-class Member State status. Asked about this point in Dublin, Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration, Vsevolod Chentsov, did not wish to react.
He did, however, assure that Kyiv “is making good progress” in addressing Budapest’s concerns about respect for the rights of Hungarian minorities in Ukraine. Hungary has used this as a pretext to slow Ukraine’s accession negotiations, although since Péter Magyar became its leader, the Hungarian government’s approach has been more constructive.
“I think it is not right to block the opening of clusters because of this issue. But we are taking it very seriously. We are currently working on a draft law, which will soon be presented to Parliament”, the Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister said.
He also highlighted “the common interest in integrating countries such as Ukraine [which] can bring many positive things to the EU”, stressing the security aspect and “Ukraine’s capacity to wage a modern war”.
While the country’s European horizon remains uncertain, Vsevolod Chentsov at the same time refused “completely to speculate on the timetable”. (Original version in French by Clément Solal)