In Iceland, the ‘no’ to reopening negotiations on accession to the European Union won with nearly 52.8% of the vote after a ballot that long remained too close to call. More than 225,000 Icelanders went to the polls on Saturday 29 August, taking turnout to 82.5%, a record level for a referendum in the country (see EUROPE 13925/2).
“We have fulfilled this promise and I am proud that we have done so in such a successful way. We knew the result would be close (...). We respect this result and the fact that turnout was so high strengthens our mandate”, said the Social Democratic Prime Minister, Kristrún Frostadóttir, on Sunday at a press conference, alongside representatives of the two other parties in the governing coalition.
Running neck and neck in the polls, the ‘no’ confounded the forecasts. One of the keys to its success lies in the youth vote, long regarded as one of the main reserves of support for the ‘yes’ camp. “In the space of one month, 18-29 year olds went from 60% in favour of ‘yes’ to 60% opposed to reopening the negotiations”, stressed Kristinn Hróbjartsson, researcher at the Vörða think tank.
The late entry into the campaign by the leaders of the ‘já’ camp and their inability to impose a mobilising narrative worked against them. The ‘nei’ camp relied on an emotional register, raising the risk of a loss of control over the fisheries sector.
By contrast, the ‘yes’ camp presented this ballot “as a mere procedural step”, explained Ragnar Hjalmarsson, researcher and political analyst. “The call to defend sovereignty is a far more powerful mobilising force than reassuring the population about a technical milestone”, he added.
The Prime Minister pledged not to return to this issue for the rest of her term ending in 2028. “A major event would have to occur in the next 24 months for this issue to become a priority on the agenda again”, she stressed. “I am not going to anticipate what will happen in two or three years”, said Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir, the Minister for Foreign Affairs.
Constrained choice of a strengthened status quo
In Brussels, the defeat of the ‘Já’ camp has left a bitter taste. The heads of the EU institutions reacted with restraint. The President of the European Council, António Costa, spoke on Sunday with the Prime Minister, making clear that the EU “fully respects the democratic choice of the Icelandic people”. Ursula von der Leyen, for her part, kept a low profile. “The Commission takes note of the result”, one of its spokespersons merely said.
One should not expect the European Commission to say openly that EU-Iceland relations will be at their best through the European Economic Area, under which Iceland participates in the EU single market without helping to draw up its rules.
The EU saw possible Icelandic accession as a symbolic catch with a perfect candidate, an opportunity to extend its influence towards the High North and perhaps to create a pull effect for Norway, another Nordic country that has always remained at the gates of the Union.
“I am very disappointed because it was only about opening a dialogue”, regretted MEP Sandro Gozi of the Renew Europe Group, who had travelled to the island at the end of June. “From now on, we must focus our efforts on the other candidate countries, especially those of the Western Balkans and Ukraine”, he said.
This position is shared by the Icelandic Prime Minister, but also by the winning camp, for whom the ‘nei’ does not amount to a rejection of Europe.
“The voting result does not change the fact that Europe remains the main market for Icelandic industry and that the EEA Agreement remains the country’s most important trade agreement”, said Sigurður Hannesson, president of the Confederation of Icelandic Industries, speaking to the daily Morgunblaðið. He is calling for greater participation by island businesses “in cooperation programmes”.
For the continent’s sovereignists, the Icelandic ‘no’ provides an opportunity to demand that the EU engage in self-criticism over its enlargement policy. “If a prosperous, democratic and outward-looking European country remains unconvinced that resuming the discussions (...) could be the right path, the EU must ask itself how to better respect sovereignty and subsidiarity”, said the Polish politician Patryk Jaki, co-chair of the conservative ECR Group in the European Parliament.
In France, far-right leader Marine Le Pen saw the result as a “crystal-clear” message, showing that “another Europe is possible, a Europe of free, sovereign nations voluntarily cooperating on matters of common interest”. (Original version in French by Louis Dubar and Victor di Bartolo)