Since the start of the Strait of Hormuz crisis, caused by the United States and Israeli attacks on Iran on 28 February, the costs for fossil fuel importers have skyrocketed, according to an analysis by the think tank CREA (Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air), published on Wednesday 26 August.
These costs have risen by more than $330 billion (€283 billion), or an additional $55 billion (€47 billion) per month. According to the researchers, this is the biggest sustained price rise since the Gulf War from August 1990 to February 1991. They also noted that the poorest countries are bearing the brunt of the consequences.
The analysis is based on the rise in the prices of oil and gas shipped by sea compared with market expectations before the conflict began.
CREA explains that the spike in fossil fuel prices has wider repercussions than the increase in prices at the pump –/+59% for diesel and gas oil and +43% for petrol. This in turn is fuelling inflation, notably by increasing production costs in industry, farming and freight transport. It is also “the most widely felt of these costs: 134 of the 170 countries in this analysis paid more for diesel than their pre-war futures implied”, the analysts estimate.
Energy transition shields against oil shocks. “Without the clean energy expansion of the past five years, the fossil fuel import bill would have been $36 billion higher (€31 billion),” said the research centre.
“The best way to protect against high oil prices is to get off the black stuff as quickly as possible”, says Luke Wickenden, Energy Analyst at CREA and co-author of the study. “The energy transition is an investment,” he adds.
The analysis also shows that the electrification of certain key sectors, such as heating and transport, helps countries to cope better with shocks, since it reduces dependence on fossil fuels.
Read the analysis: https://aeur.eu/f/n5e (Original version in French by Nadège Delépine)