On Friday 8 December, the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, and the British Prime Minister, Theresa May, announced that they had reached an agreement on the main aspects of the first phase of the divorce between the United Kingdom and the European Union.
It was one last discussion on the question of Northern Ireland that allowed the final obstacles to be removed (see other article).
The Commission immediately made a recommendation to the European Council, which is to meet hold a meeting of 27 on Friday 15 December, to start the second phase of the UK's withdrawal negotiations, on the transition period, which the EU hopes will be as short as possible, and the outlines of the future trade deal between the two sides.
“If the 27 member states accept our assessment, we - the Commission and our negotiator-in-chief, Michel Barnier - are ready to start work immediately on the second phase of negotiations”, Juncker explained, adding that he was confident that he would get this green light.
Logically, the 27 are expected to give the green light to adopting guidelines on the forthcoming negotiations. Although they will be able to start work immediately on a transition period of around two years after March 2019, they will probably need to adopt new guidelines on trade relations once the British have clarified the type of relationship they hope to negotiate with the EU. This could happen in spring 2018.
On the first phase of the divorce, Barnier explained that the EU had noted real progress on the three priority questions: - respect for citizens' rights, the budgetary balance of the withdrawal and the Irish question. Elements concerning Euratom or the governance of the agreement will be finalised in the coming months, but the general principles have been agreed upon.
Citizens. The 4.5 million citizens directly affected by Brexit, nationals of the 27 on British soil and British nationals in the EU, will retain their rights after March 2019. For instance, they will not have to pay to apply for a new permanent resident status. They will also be able to export their social rights, such as family benefits. European citizens in the UK will also be able to bring their close family and future children, born after Brexit, with no particular difficulty, under family reunification. This right was not previously fully agreed upon by London.
On the other hand, the EU has had to give in over the Court of Justice of the EU, which it wanted to have the final say in the interpretation of citizens' rights in the event of any conflict. The British courts will rule alone but will, for a period of eight years, be able to refer to the Court for a preliminary ruling, but with no obligation to do so. The EU had proposed a period of 15 years but, according to Barnier, eight years will be enough to establish sufficient case-law.
The British courts will have to work on the basis of the withdrawal agreement as approved at the time of Brexit.
The withdrawal 'bill'. On finances, the fifteen-page provisional agreement stipulates that London accepts the calculation method presented by the EU. In particular, this method will involve London paying its commitments under the European budget for 2019 and 2020 and regularly paying other commitments it has made under various programmes, such as the refugees facility in Turkey or the trust fund for Africa.
The EU has, however, made a gesture by not insisting that London cover the moving costs of the European agencies (EBA, EMA) currently based in London, Barnier added.
In any event, both sides will meet regularly to calculate London's final bill. This is expected to be between €45 and €50 billion, a European source said on Friday morning.
Ireland. On Northern Ireland, May made a further commitment on Friday to avoid a physical border. However, the specific solution will come later, probably in the framework of negotiations on the UK's future status.
The fact is that London agreed this week that in the absence of a definitive solution, Northern Ireland would have “full alignment” on the rules of customs union and the single market, which is what the European side was asking for.
“This is a very good day for Ireland, north and South. We have achieved the aims we set in the first phase”, an Irish government spokesperson commented.
The President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, also regretted the fact that the two sides had wasted time on the first phase, which would appear to be the more straightforward.
Stating that the second phase will be tougher than the first, Barnier said that the confidence between the two partners had been established, indicating that the two sides may engage in subsequent talks with no animosity. However, throughout this second phase, there will be much work to do, to consolidate and clarify the agreement, the EU negotiator warned.
Cautious satisfaction of the European Parliament
Commenting off the cuff, the negotiators of the Parliament said that the content of the joint report between the UK and the EU, as presented on Friday, is enough of a basis to move to the second phase of negotiations. “Our recommendation is to move to phase two”, said Guy Verhofstadt (ALDE, Belgium).
On Friday, Parliament’s negotiating team submitted a draft resolution to the Conference of Presidents, which will be put before the plenary on Monday ahead of a debate on Wednesday 13 December.
This draft resolution notes five outstanding questions: - whether future partners of European citizens will be taken into account; - the importance that applying to renew residence permits in the UK is free of charge, involves as little red tape as possible, may be made by one family on behalf of all of its members and that the burden of proof lies with the British administration; - ensuring that the case-law of the Court is binding; - ensuring free movement for British nationals in the EU; - a specification in the withdrawal agreement as to how the principles set out in the report will prevent a return to a physical border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland.
Elmar Brok (EPP, Germany) and Gabi Zimmer (GUE/NGL, Germany) welcomed the unity of the political groups on the Brexit dossier. Roberto Gualtieri (S&D, Italy) observed that on citizens’ rights, the current case-law of the Court will be binding for eternity, as only the future case-law will be subject to the period of eight years.
The text of the joint report is available at: http://bit.ly/2iGFODe (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic and Mathieu Bion)