As requested by the European Commission, the rule of law situation in Poland will be on the agenda again for European affairs ministers on Monday 25 September, along with the Brexit talks and preparations for the October European summit.
Meeting in a General Affairs Council, the ministers will be addressed by the first vice-president of the European Commission, Frans Timmermans, who will brief them on progress in the dialogue with Warsaw. This dialogue began at the start of 2016 and is addressing the Polish government’s judicial reform, which could disproportionately increase the power of politicians over the justice system.
Since the last ministerial discussion in May (see EUROPE 11789), the Commission has sent the Polish authorities new recommendations (see EUROPE 11837). A diplomatic source admitted on Thursday 21 September that no progress has been seen since then, but at this stage, one should not speculate about what the Commission will ask for and whether it will call for explicit backing from the member states for launching the ‘Article 7 procedure’, as threatened by Frans Timmermans before the summer break.
Listed on the General Affairs Council agenda under ‘any other business,’ the Polish question is expected to lead to discussion among the member states and probably further criticism of Warsaw. Germany’s attitude ahead of its general elections will be closely monitored.
After the summer break, even though the Commission entered a new stage in the infringement procedure over the reform of ordinary courts in Poland (see EUROPE 11860), Timmermans has taken a more measured attitude to the European Commission’s intentions. Addressing the European Parliament’s civil liberties committee, he avoided any repeat of his threat he brandished before the summer break to make use of Article 7 of the treaty.
In an interview with Bloomberg on 18 September, Timmermans again stressed that Poland had to respect the rule of law, and that failing to act on such questions would be failing in its duties. Another source, however, said he would not be making any big announcements on Monday.
Poland’s President Andrzej Duda, who halted the introduction of a number of measures, is expected to bring to the negotiating table on Monday changes to some laws singled out for criticism by the Commission. Recommending a firm line, France's Foreign Minister Nathalie Loiseau told EUROPE that it was important to wait for these new proposals (see EUROPE 11861).
At the European Parliament, the Greens/EFA and ALDE Groups have drafted a resolution on respect for the rule of law in Poland, hoping to have it adopted in the second plenary in October. The Polish authorities risk seeing the European Parliament launch proceedings on respect for the rule of law similar to the proceedings launched against Hungary (see EUROPE 11790).
The ministers will also discuss preparations for the European summit in October, which will examine migration, defence, external relations and Brexit talks with the United Kingdom.
Brexit. On Monday afternoon, the EU27 ministers will meet (without their British counterpart) for the General Affairs Council in the Article 50 format. They will discuss progress in the talks with London three days after a speech by the British prime minister in Florence. A new round of talks is scheduled to start in October.
The EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, will brief ministers on the talks. It will be his job to decide whether there has been enough progress to move to the second phase of talks on the EU’s future relations with the UK. A source said, however, that a deadline was not on the European summit’s agenda in October for Barnier to give his view on whether the EU27 should decide to open talks on post-Brexit trade relations between the EU and the UK. The question may be raised in Tallinn in a week’s time, however, when the EU28 meets for an informal summit on the digital economy.
Composition of the European Parliament. Over lunch, the European ministers will discuss the composition of the European Parliament after the 2019 European elections. The planned withdrawal of the United Kingdom would leave 73 vacant MEP seats.
At the European Parliament, talks have already begun. Danuta Huebner (EPP, Poland) and Pedro Silva Pereira (S&D, Portugal) suggest cutting the number of MEPs to 700 and setting up a single constituency for electing MEPs on transnational lists (see EUROPE 11860, 11857). France and Italy back the idea of transnational lists, but a high-ranking European official said no decision would be taken on this in the next few weeks, be it at the General Affairs Council or the European summit. (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic with Mathieu Bion)