Necessary for Europe… It's important to avoid dramatising the current differences of opinion between Russia and Europe. Of course, each of the parties is protecting its interests and puts forward it reasons - this is normal. Yet the excessive ratcheting-up does as much damage to one side as the other, and risks distorting the real situation.
Moscow needs to cooperate with Europe. It's not worth insisting on this point. It should be enough to recall that the export of gas and oil to the EU makes up around half of the Russian national budget. However, for Europe too, a break in cooperation with Russia would have negative repercussions - the activity of 25-30% of European electric power plants would be compromised; a large number of chemical factories would have to stop; huge projects for new gas and oil routes would have to be abandoned. In short, the economic activity in several European countries would be disrupted or compromised. Of course, we could always retort that, if Russia defaults, we could change supplier. But how? How many years would it take before we could do this?
Herman Van Rompuy has said that in 2035 the EU will depend on sources abroad for 80% of its gas and oil, compared with 50% today. At the current time, for Germany - the EU's top economic power - Russian gas represents 30% of the energy consumed, and economic cooperation with Russia spans several sectors. Six thousand German businesses are said to be established on Russian territory and Siemens (through huge contracts) is to fit out railways there. France, for its part, is in the middle of building two-door Mistral helicopters for Moscow. The subject is avoided in Paris and the idea of breaching this contract is not even mentioned - the French pretend that nothing has happened. The French president has spoken of the possibility of “suspending political relations” with Russia, while the head of the branch of the French company Total in Moscow has reportedly stated that on both sides there are enough reasonable people to lower the tension. Several member states make significant exports to the Russian market, cooperation between the two parties is developing in several areas and the operators concerned have no intention of going back on this. Aware of this situation, several governments (Germany, France, Italy, Benelux, Austria and Finland) have asked the European Commission for a study on trade with Russia and on the prospects for developing this.
… and even more so for Russia. It is especially important not to believe that the great beggar is Europe in this affair. Let me insist on the fact that Moscow can obviously not forget that over half its national budget is funded by the export of Russian gas and oil to Europe. This is an incontrovertible reality on which the Russian economy depends. As for the measures banning top level Russian figures from entering EU territory, we might wonder if they are really very damaging to Russia. The situation in England is telling - Russian millionaires have obtained a British passport, live in London where they have bought luxury properties and football teams, and have - in particular - brought billions of pounds to the City. Are the restrictions that regard them really harmful to the Russian economy - which Brussels would like to punish? The important issue for Moscow is the safeguard or re-establishment of normal relations with the EU, preserving the sale of its gas and European investments, while the de-valuation of the rouble has already begun. This is why Putin ought to respect the commitments that he took after the annexation of Crimea, starting with the statement: “We do not want Ukraine to split”.
For Washington, the Pacific area is the priority. Up to this point I have not mentioned the Americans. This is not through negligence but because US interests coincide less and less with those of Europe. For Washington, the Pacific has become the priority, rather than the Atlantic. The era of ambitious Euro-American projects is over. The outline of the transatlantic trade and investment partnership agreement (TTIP) is still being discussed but not many believe in it (see EUROPE 11034 and 11039).
For the Americans, relations with Russia are essentially military. This is understandable, and Europe must accept that Washington is turning to the Pacific. Brussels must take account of this in its projects for appeasement and cooperation with Moscow - a European issue and not an American one.
(FR)