Mr Monti has taken appropriate measures. The main concern of the Italian authorities is to avoid domestic complications linked to the result of the national elections (see this column in EUROPE 10799) from compromising the country's role at the European level. While waiting for the newly elected national parliament to meet and brig forward a government, the current technicnocratic executive continues in operation and it president, Mario Monti, will represent Italy at next week's European Council. In principle, Mr Monti manages current affairs - but he has taken the initiatives which, in his opinion, are appropriate to be able to fully participate in the Brussels deliberations, on an equal level with the other participants, proving that the country functions normally and that it is not all adrift. This, in his opinion, is all the more necessary as the summit will review the EU's financial framework for 2014-2020 and the on-going negotiations in this regard with the European Parliament.
This is why, before travelling to Brussels, Mr Monti has invited the three winners of the national elections - Messrs Bersani, Grillo and Berlusconi - to have an exchange of views with him on the subjects which will be discussed at the summit, so as to legitimise the positions that he will take on 15 March with his European colleagues. He met Mr Bersani yesterday (Thursday), and will meet Mr Berlusconi this Friday. We wait to see if Mr Grillo will reply to his invitation. Mr Monti therefore has twin objectives - to prove that national events have not provoked chaos in his country, and to prove that the Italian attitude with regard to the EU remains unchanged. The results of the national elections indicate essentially a resolve to correct the domestic shortcomings and abuses of the political class, but they do not influence Italy's attitude in support of European construction and in support of participating in the euro.
It is true that Mr Berlusconi has not ruled out the hypothesis of Italy leaving the eurozone, though the two political forces ranked ahead him seem to be heading towards an alliance (even if nothing is yet in the bag), while leaving Mr Berlusconi in the opposition.
On Wednesday, Mr Monti clarified his position in a press conference in Rome. For the moment, he intends to reason with the leaders resulting from the elections - but if the result was a government “headed in the direction of interrupting Italy's European path”, he himself and his party would “not be ready to distance themselves from the European roots or from the way of structural reforms that has already been started”. He has, however, added that the possibility exists of an agreement between the political forces, underlining that it's up to President of the Republic Giorgio Napolitano to decide which route is to be followed.
Why an Italian exit from the euro is unthinkable. The uncertainties about the Italian situation have obviously aroused numerous analyses on the consequences of a potential Italian exit from the eurozone and the conclusions are rather catastrophic - especially for Italy itself.
As far as I'm aware, the most explicit person on this has been Paul De Grauwe, a lecturer at the London School of Economics and adviser to European Commission President José Manuel Barroso. De Grauwe believes that there would be an acute worsening of the economic recession, leading to the explosion of interest and inflation rates, with unrest among the population and the risk of violence in the streets. It is true that abandoning the euro is not provided for in the official texts, but Mr De Grauwe does not doubt that lawyers could find a way to make it happen. The problem is neither legal, nor technical - it is a political issue. No one can oblige a country to stay in the eurozone if that country wants to leave it, even if this is not provided for in the treaties.
(FR/transl.fl)