It's not the EU's place to lecture, but… It's not the EU's place to lecture to the Mediterranean third countries, or to give out compliments or criticism. It is true that these countries are so closely linked to Europe by history, geography, traditions and a common past that their developments are followed with particular interest. But it is not up to the EU to pass judgment on them. Their elections are carried out properly, in general (this section will have more to say on the ones which have just taken place in Libya) and their results must be accepted, even if, in some cases, we would like them to be slightly different and, in particular, more favourable to the cause of women.
However, it is clear that developments in other countries influence mutual relations. The unrealistic, rhetorical and ill-conceived project of the euro-Mediterranean free-trade area has gone, I believe for good, because it is based on the assumption of an opening-up of the borders between countries of the southern shore, despite the fact that the tendency is for these countries to be moving further apart. There are timely common projects, and always will be; but it is better to forget any idea of a proper union covering all countries of this area; the few MEPs in Strasbourg still talking about it are indulging in demagogy.
To each, their own. Every country of the southern shore is trying to develop bilateral relations with the EU by moving in radically different directions; Tunisia is not Egypt, Algeria is not Morocco. The leaders of the Mediterranean third countries negotiate separately with the EU, each with their own objectives. Morocco aspires to a “status of quasi-accession to the EU”, in the sense of “being able to accede to and participate in the European economic area” on the basis of an “in-depth and global free-trade agreement” (see EUROPE 10618). In the opposite corner, Egypt seems to be setting less and less store by what remains of the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM); it refused to allow European observers to attend its presidential elections and since March of this year, has left its UfM co-presidency place vacant. Basically, as Catherine Ashton was the president of the European contingent, the co-presidency of the other side was accepted by Jordan, which is not part of that southern shore on which such great attention and efforts are concentrated, which, I repeat, are absolutely not overarching and uniform, but specific to each country.
Egypt distances itself. Let us take a closer look at the specific case of Egypt. The European media sent a pack of reporters out there, who described the strange situation on the ground very well: the Islamic organisations which are winning elections, the institutions intervening with initiatives which appear quite strange at first sight, the armed forces agreeing in theory to the result of the vote, but keeping their hands on the real power. What these reports on the ground missed out is that they were unaware of the substratum of the evolutions they describe, in other words the fact that the armed forces are largely bankrolled by the US and that this money is subject to the observation of the Camp David agreements with Israel. If Egypt breaks these agreements, the American subsidy will disappear. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will be in Egypt on 14th July and then in Israel on the 16th and 17th to clarify a few things, and no doubt to remind them of the conditions for the American assistance…
At the same time, Israel is getting ready for change, change already underway or possible future change, by diversifying the sources of its energy supply (in light of discoveries in the Mediterranean Sea around Cyprus) and by stepping up its protection in the Sinai area. In Egypt itself, according to observers, Alexandria's transformation is now complete. The ancient cosmopolitan splendour is now no more than a memory: the age-old Greek, Russian, Italian, Jewish, English and French communities have gone by the board; the Copts (who consider themselves descendants of the Egypt of the pyramids) are in the process of doing likewise. Furthermore, Lawrence Durrell wrote 60 years ago that Alexandria was a city “to speak of in the past tense”. It is to be expected that its population today has all its rights; these are the people who vote and choose their present and their future.
The political situation is moving on. Iran broke off diplomatic relations with Egypt following the Camp David agreements more than 30 years ago; now, its president is congratulating his Egyptian opposite number Mohammed Morsi and inviting him to the Conference of the non-aligned movement to be held in Tehran on 29 August.
And the other choices? Egypt is going to choose its own road and its own future. All indications are that for the most part, neither of these will develop within the framework of the Union for the Mediterranean (of which Israel is a member).
Tomorrow, this section will return to the situation and prospects for the relations between the EU and the other countries of the southern Mediterranean which aspire to strengthen their ties with Europe.
(FR/transl.fl)