New phase. European construction is entering a new phase. Many facets of this new phase have yet to become clear, though a number of points are easy to see: (a) the eurozone is becoming a compact area, governed by uniform regulations that are monitored at Community level, where the role of the institutions is crucial and qualified majority voting is widely used; (b) the two-speed Europe will become inevitable in practice because of the opposition or reservations of a number of member states; (c) the United Kingdom has elected to remain on the sidelines and we will shortly discover if this is to be partial isolation which nevertheless does not rule out the essential points of European construction (by remaining legally a part of the EU) or if the separation will progressively become total.
Development will progressively extend to other areas for which provision of the option of enhanced cooperation has been made in the Treaty, for example, on military cooperation in a European context, but also in other areas. The change will be profound.
Everything remains to be clarified. While the transition to a new phase is, in my view, a certainty, the road to be taken is still open to much doubt. No one can claim to know or understand how the decisions taken by 26 EU heads of state or government on 9 December will come about. Everything remains to be determined and specified, working from the legal basis of the inter-governmental treaty without the UK. In this new kind of treaty, how will the role of the EU institutions (European Commission and European Parliament in particular) be guaranteed and defined? How will legal obstacles be overcome?
Last week's agreement has already clearly set out the rules of the eurozone and the (very hefty) automatic penalties to be imposed on those who fail to comply with them. The main part has already been done, then. However, many points in this new phase still have to be made clear.
The uncertainty is justified as British rejection of revision of the current treaty only made the need for a new treaty inevitable after a full night of vain efforts to persuade Mr Cameron to abandon the absurd conditions he was seeking to impose. The heads of government did not discuss the details of what was to be done: they came out in favour of an inter-governmental treaty after being given assurances that it was a possibility. Mr Barroso later spoke of legal requirements and other conditions that have to be respected. The political decision has been taken but the European Commission, lawyers and diplomats still have much work ahead of them.
British rebate challenged. The European Parliament is debating the new treaty (see the following pages of this newsletter) and one detail, in particular, in the discussions struck me: according to Joseph Daul, the leader of the largest group, the EPP, the British rebate must be re-visited because “our fellow citizens' money must be used for something other than to reward selfish, nationalistic attitudes”. This rebate was won by Margaret Thatcher as partial compensation of British contributions to the costs of the common agricultural policy. It will be discussed in negotiations on the Financial Perspectives 2014-2020 package (as this column has already made mention).
Points raised. According to Mr Van Rompuy, “the inter-governmental treaty will be incorporated as quickly as possible into the EU Treaty”. It would be interesting to know the basis for this hypothesis. Mr Juncker, President of the Eurogroup, has highlighted the “greater role” for the European Commission. Mr Barroso has acknowledged that an inter-governmental treaty brings with it legal and other problems - however, this is compensated for by its being much more quickly put into effect. Mr Sarkozy has stated that the economic government of the eurozone has been institutionalised: it is the heads of state and government.
These are points which are already known. At the same time, weaknesses have been flagged up. In the texts, there is no mention whatsoever of eurobonds, but they are forever being talked about. The prospect of the new treaty has re-ignited federalist projects. Other issues will no doubt also be relaunched. I will return to them.
(FR/transl.rt)