Speculation on current circumstances. Has EU unity been compromised? The question is not about whether a country can leave the EU (nobody wants to), but rather how various groups of countries with different interests can be set up - particularly euro countries on the one hand and non-euro countries on the other. Officially, such an option is always denied, sometimes with force by a number of member states, but it formed the backdrop of the entire debate at the European Parliament on economic governance (reported upon in yesterday's newsletter), with constant veiled references to it. Van Rompuy said he wanted to tone down the debate about a two-speed Europe, and Barroso said he wanted to ensure that stronger governance of the eurozone was coherent with the rules governing the EU27. Juncker called for the question to be examined of whether a permanent presidency of the Eurogroup was necessary at the end of his term of office next year, while Verhofstadt called for the creation of a Budgetary Union and Saryusz-Wolski of Poland spoke out against a two-speed Europe. Summing up, Van Rompuy warned that failure to implement budget discipline would lead to this split between member states which “arouses such fears”.
Barroso rejected the idea of two sets of EU institutions - one European Commission for the eurozone and another for the EU27, likewise for the European Parliament and the Court of Justice. He said that the single currency was key to the European Union, rather than being a separate add-on.
Two types of split. It is true that the current EU treaty sets out the possibility of enhanced cooperation among groups of member states in areas as important as defence, but the idea behind it is simply to prevent a single member state or small group of member states from vetoing key areas of progress in the European project. Concern at present is the other way round - countries like Poland that are not yet in the Eurozone, but are planning to join, wanting to take part in the debates among eurozone nations. Two types of split are possible:
(a) a division within the eurozone so that countries breaching the rules can leave. Jean-Claude Juncker, the chair of the Eurogroup, rejects this idea, arguing that the countries facing problems today will overcome the crisis and meet the budget and debt commitments with the aid of eurozone instruments. It is understandable that this is the chairperson's view, and his attitude is backed up by changes in Angela Merkel's line because she now favours a strengthening of the bailout systems and the creation of integrated economic governance in the eurozone.
But it is also understandable that some governments see the glass as half empty and are considering the following option:
(b) de facto separation between eurozone nations and the other member states. This second option is very strongly opposed in Poland, which is unsurprising because Poland is currently chairing the Council of the EU (and would therefore like to be able to attend the Eurogroup meetings to keep up with what is going on there) and wants to wield more weight within the EU in general, developing the EU's relations with its eastern neighbours in particular, although this has been hampered by events in the Ukraine and the reining in of European spending. On the military front, Poland is one of the five countries that called for a permanent EU military headquarters to be set up (along with Germany, France, Italy and Spain), despite the United Kingdom's categorical opposition to the idea.
On the economic and financial front, Poland's finance minister cannot see the country joining the euro before 2019 and anyway, the idea of setting up special eurozone bodies is rejected by the European Commission, but the idea of eurozone autonomy is backed by a number of its nations and Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, openly supports it.
This would mean a two-speed Europe with eurozone countries in the fast-lane. The United Kingdom, of course, is a special case - it argues that the EU should be no more than a network of countries (see yesterday's column), although MEP Andrew Duff has a different idea about his country's role in Europe, and the director of the European Council of Foreign Relations, Mark Leonard, says it is time for the illusion of a single-speed Europe to be dropped.
Today, I have simply set out the facts about a two-speed Europe - the classic dilemma in the European project. I will return to the idea tomorrow.
(FR/transl.fl)