Cautious optimism. The evolution of the new Arab democracies is being followed with a sympathy that remains unchanged but a certain degree of caution is also required. The enthusiasm greeting the Arab Spring continues unabated but this is also accompanied by an awareness that getting rid of dictators and a corrupt political class and replacing them with democracy and freedom is just the beginning. It is what follows that presents the difficulty because it involves the consolidation of the new regime and the development of a viable economy. It should never be forgotten that the primary aim of the young people behind the insurrection was jobs and social justice. From the very beginning, this column has warned against simplistic rhetoric. The demagogic character of some of the commentaries was superficial to the extent that it appeared naïve and sometimes rather tiresome.
From Morocco to the Gulf. The different movements that have sprung up are positive overall because they want to develop systems with more freedom. They are also generating change in countries where the regimes have remained intact, such as Morocco and Algeria. The Moroccan foreign affairs minister provided a description of the changes being undertaken and then added that “the Moroccan model is similar to Turkey and Indonesia's experiences and confirms that Islam is perfectly compatible with democracy, freedom and human rights”. It would be naïve to expect developments all to go in the direction of European style democracies. Let's take the case of the Bahrain, where conflicts are broadly related to the division of the population between Sunni and Shia Muslims. If two Muslim tendencies are confronting each other, how could the country move towards a secular regime in which all religions were on an equal footing? Bahrain is just one example - no country from this area is moving towards the freedom/democracy combination as perceived in Europe.
From Egypt to Libya. Even in countries that are close to Europe geographically and which are clearly orientated towards developing regimes based on freedom, there can still be no safe bets on what the future will hold. In Egypt, it is the army that is preparing and organising the transition towards democracy. This army is almost totally bankrolled by the US and a considerable dose of naïveté would be required not to see a link between this funding and maintaining Egypt's agreement with Israel. The role of the army in this connection is already being contested. Egypt is a unique case due to its incomparable heritage, in addition to positive economic prospects, thanks to the Suez Canal. It will be necessary for the army to play its role loyally and for the country not to slide into religious intolerance.
What can be said about Libya? This column had anticipated the political and psychological risks of armed intervention that was deemed too Euro-US centric. It also underlined Colonel Gaddafi's threat to throw men, women and children from Black Africa into the sea, towards Italy, if the Italian government decided that the commitments Italy had made with him were no longer valid. He is putting his threat into practice and the effects of his ignobly organised plans are being felt to dramatic effect. How will things pan out? Barack Obama appears less and less enthusiastic about his country intervening militarily. Gaddafi is creating the impression that he is eager to find a solution. There is talk about oil production being resumed and there is even the hypothesis of dividing Libya into the three original parts composing the country. Everything is up for grabs and no serious forecast can be made as to the outcome.
Questions concerning Tunisia. Tunisia has a government created by the “new regime” and it is quite rightly requesting support from Europe. It will have it. Nonetheless, certain aspects of the subsequent developments do not correspond to all the hope and expectations expressed. A significant number of young people who fought for the country's transformation do not appear to trust what has happened on the ground. Instead of making a total commitment to it, they are more concerned with scurrying towards Europe as illegal immigrants, without the right to demand asylum. They are refusing to be returned to their country and the authorities in Tunis are only agreeing to the return of those that have requested it. For the majority of these illegal immigrants, Italy is just a transit point and their goal is to go to other EU countries, particularly France, because they know the language and hundreds of thousands of their fellow citizens already live there. Italy has negotiated compromises with Tunis and has agreed to grant the illegal immigrants provisional leave to remain, which will enable those who enjoy this status to move freely around the Schengen area. France and Germany, however, have underlined a number of conditions that have to be fulfilled in order to be able to travel around in this way.
In addition to the legal component, a number of key questions still need to be answered: why do a considerable number of young Tunisians still not want to stay in their own free and democratic country? Why are the new Tunisian authorities opposed to them being returned? This column will examine these issues tomorrow.
(F.R./transl.fl)