Logical result. Last Friday's EU-Russia summit concluded in the only reasonable way between two partners which both know that the need to work together is incomparably stronger than their differences of opinion (which are also inevitable in such a complex relationship). Each party is sticking to its guns on the points of disagreement, be it the territorial integrity of Georgia or certain aspects of energy cooperation, but the immediate resumption of negotiations on the new partnership agreement is a done deal (see the summary of the results of the summit in the previous edition of our bulletin). Even on the most politically delicate item, which was added to the programme after Russia announced its intentions of installing missiles at Kaliningrad, Mr Medvedev and Mr Sarkozy indicated their general agreement to seek appeasement. This general view does not represent an official position on the part of the Europeans, still less a decision, because it involves the United States and the governments of Warsaw and Prague (the two last have reacted logically: see the following pages of this bulletin), but this is a very worthwhile indication, which may send out a message to the new American president.
What Lithuania needs to understand. The most significant operational decision is the observation that negotiations on the new partnership agreement will resume without delay (2 December, according to the European Commission). The member states which were first of all reluctant, such as the United Kingdom, Poland and a few others, have now got behind the obvious opportunity for this relaunch. Only one member state, Lithuania, has maintained its negative position, but even before the summit, the president-in-exercise of the External Relations Council, Mr Kouchner, noted that 26 member states out of 27 agreed, and that that was more than enough. Previously, the legal services had indicated that a unanimous positive decision of the Council was not necessary, because there was never a formal decision to suspend talks: the European Commission is leading them, and the political consensus of the Council was more than enough. The Lithuanian government should understand just how inappropriate its position is, and how contrary to its own interests; only in a European framework can its (justifiable) concerns be effectively defended against the Russian colossus. How would Lithuania, working alone, get its voice heard in Moscow? It must rely on the EU, which incidentally voiced Lithuanian energy concerns at Friday's summit, and Mr Medvedev promised that Russia would take account of them.
The fundamental problems subsist… The resumption of negotiations on the new partnership is essential for both parties and even for the whole world, but obviously, it does not mean that the fundamental problems have all been resolved. The fundamental questions remain on the table; there are many of them and they are very difficult: trade regime (including the obstacles which delay Russia's accession to the WTO), conditions for investments and reciprocity and, of course, the energy dossier. The rules to be defined in this field will determine not only bilateral relations between the EU and Russia, but they will directly involve the Republics of the former USSR which are now autonomous, the Black Sea, the legal regime in the Caspian Sea region, Iran, Iraq, Turkey and also, therefore, the Mediterranean. Current attitudes appear positive: both sides are aware that there is a mutual interest in reaching an agreement; the EU needs Russian energy sources, but Russia needs the certainty of its European outlets and technological cooperation just as much.
... but the goodwill goes both ways. As the European negotiator of the agreement, Eneko Landaburu, declared, the EU may, if push comes to shove, find sources of supply elsewhere, but it is only on the European market that Russia has stable and safe outlets. A few gestures indicate the mutual willingness to come to an agreement, such as Moscow's decision to suspend the increase in taxes on exports of wood (vital for Finland), or its announced availability to supply the Nabucco project with gas, even though it bypasses Russian soil. Everything remains to be negotiated, but the conditions are highly favourable. If the EU is in a hurry, so is Russia, whose economy has suffered particularly badly from the financial crisis.
On a political and strategic level, then, the goodwill appears to go both ways. The political differences of opinion which subsist and some elements of which (such as the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia) were explicitly referred to by the summit, go hand-in-hand with initiatives targeting appeasement, such as the suggestion that the anti-missile shield project in the countries of the EU, and the Russian tactical missiles project in Kaliningrad, should both be frozen at the same time. This column will return to this suggestion tomorrow.
(F.R./trans.fl)