Expectations of the next G8 Summit suggest that energy issues will not be at the heart of discussions. The leaders, on whom much of the world's fate depends, will not allow themselves not to speak about them or to approve a text on energy, but it will be without deep debate and operational decisions. The agenda is so full! They will approve “declarations” on terrorism, nuclear non-proliferation, regional crises, the Doha Round, intellectual property and counterfeiting, education, pandemics and, no doubt, I'm forgetting some. The Russian authorities are doing their best to create a positive atmosphere and consolidate their position as a world player: they have indicated to NGOs that the law restricting their activities in Russia could be amended, have announced the convertibility of the rouble and Mr Putin has just met a trade union delegation in Moscow.
The energy declaration is (nearly) ready. So what about energy? The available information suggests that the G8 “declaration” is practically ready. It restates some general, but always welcome, principles: joint responsibility of producer, transit and consumer countries; need for common “post-Kyoto” rules on environmental safety and energy efficiency; support for alternative energies. More significantly, Russia has accepted the idea of a legal framework for private investment and that the text speaks of the transparency of data on energy reserves. As a rule, the Russians consider data on their reserves a “State secret”, but they would appear to have agreed to a reference to the “Jodi” (Joint oil data initiative) on oil and other energy sources. In exchange, they are asking for the retention of the principle of “security of demand” on the part of importing countries to counterbalance the principle of “security of supply” demanded of exporting countries. The concept will be retained but in a very qualified way. We'll have to wait for the text.
Differences will not be expressed. The situation seems clear enough: the G8 Summit will not debate specific difficulties hindering cooperation between Russia and the West, in particular in the area of energy. The first obstacle concerns the accession of Russia to the WTO, blocked by differences with the United States. Washington wants the entrance ticket to cover three very controversial issues: American companies to be able to exploit the huge Shtokman gas field, banks from WTO countries to be able to operate in the Russian market without opening subsidiaries under Russian law, protection of intellectual property to be increased. Moscow says that, without an agreement on entry conditions, Russia will return to its overall freedom and will no longer have to apply WTO rules and principles with which it was in line while still in the waiting room. The EU is directly affected because the possible failure of Russia's accession to the WTO would render obsolete the arrangements already concluded with Moscow. This will be discussed at the Summit.
Russian ratification of the Energy Charter will not be discussed either at St Petersburg, but at a later date, within the context of EU-Russia bilateral relations, which are at one and the same time very promising and very complex. In practice, Vladimir Putin is making access to his country's energy sources for European companies (provided for in the Charter) conditional on Gazprom's being able to enter EU energy markets. No general legal opening, but negotiations case by case. It is not by chance that Romano Prodi's first foreign initiative as Prime Minister was to sign an agreement in Moscow opening the way for a Russian presence in energy distribution in Italy and for ENI and ENEL to be involved in the exploitation of Russian gas and oil fields. The European Commission's initiative for a new widened overall EU-Russia agreement is one of the on-going manoeuvres (even though the promise of a free trade zone should not be taken to the letter), just as the decision by the Finnish Presidency of the Council to make relations with Russia one of its priorities, beginning with the invitation of Mr Putin to take part in the informal EU Summit in Lahti on 20 October.
Lots to negotiate. Conclusion: the responses to the key questions posed by EU-Russia relations will not come from the G8 Summit, which is only one episode in the story, but from intense direct negotiations over the coming months and years, and including the “human rights” issue which is being raised more and more insistently by the European Parliament and by several non-governmental organisations.
(F.R.)