Europe’s next long-term budget was the main item on the agenda of the informal General Affairs Council on Thursday 3 and Friday 4 September in Dublin (see EUROPE 13930/1). However, the discussions did not lead to any notable progress on this post-2027 Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF). The Irish Minister of State for Europe, Thomas Byrne, nevertheless informed his counterparts that the Presidency of the Council of the EU was considering presenting its own basis for negotiation (“negotiating box”), a priori as early as the first week of October. This Irish version, containing updated figures compared with the Cypriot version of last June (see EUROPE 13886/1), will then be discussed by heads of state or government at the 15 October summit in Brussels.
In Dublin, ministers essentially reiterated the same national positions they have held for weeks, as in the case of the so-called ‘frugal’ countries, pushing for “hundreds of billions in budget cuts”. German Minister of State for the EU Gunther Krichbaum was among the most outspoken around the table.
But there are grounds for hope. “I am convinced that Ireland will present a good proposal in the coming weeks. We have now moved beyond the phase of feeling our way in politically and entered the real financial negotiations”, Austrian Federal Minister Claudia Bauer, for her part, sought to play down.
Moreover, the Irish Presidency believes that, after the peak in confrontation that is said to have been reached before the summer between the ‘frugal’ camp - or budget ‘modernisers’ - and the ‘Friends of Cohesion’ camp (see EUROPE 13889/1), the atmosphere is gradually becoming more constructive behind the scenes. Indeed, it is said to be in the bilateral talks held with each Member State, rather than around the EU27 table or in front of microphones, that the real red lines, and the possible avenues for compromise, are beginning to emerge.
“I have had an intensive series of bilateral meetings with a large number of my ministerial counterparts - I think I am at fourteen at this stage. And I will have more on the sidelines of the General Affairs Council in Brussels on 22 September”, Thomas Byrne argued after the meeting, sounding confident about the possibility of concluding the negotiation by the end of the year.
Dublin nevertheless considers the exercise all the more difficult because of national policy issues and the need for each minister to work with their own coalition partners.
Progress is therefore even less evident on the thorny issue of own resources. The Irish Presidency has also planned to analyse the proposal by the President of the Eurogroup, Kyriakos Pierrakakis, to create a new own resource based on the telecoms sector (see EUROPE 13914/9).
However, Ireland remains sceptical about the practical possibility of incorporating other own-resources projects into the ongoing work, in addition to those proposed by the Commission and Parliament (see EUROPE 13930/2), given the very tight timetable for the 2028-2034 MFF. (Original version in French by Clément Solal)