This column, naturally, will only speak of political developments in France with regard to their ramifications for European construction. Domestically, the people of each country make their own decisions on who to elect - it is not up to us to make any judgments, either on the choices of a new member state or of one of the major founding countries. We can, however, try to understand or forecast the effects of choices: we have looked at developments in Hungary, the Czech Republic and elsewhere, so why not France?
Here are a few, sometimes short and to the point, statements and comments.
(1) Broad opposition non-existent. Pompous judgments seeking to summarise in a few words what happened in France sometimes border on the ridiculous. For example: “The French voted in large numbers for anti-European Union parties”. Untrue. In fact, only one political group expressed sentiments of this kind and it received 18.17% of votes cast.
(2) Unalterable timetable. No matter what the final choice of the French people is on 6 May, economic recovery in the EU, including in France, cannot be brought forward. It is supposed to be for the end of the year, it cannot come before that. Germany, like all the others, needs it but above all what it needs is economic recovery in the other member states so that they can continue to buy German goods.
(3) Little import given to European issues… Little truck was given to matters European in the French electoral campaign. For example, François Hollande's “seven commitments” which “correspond to the expectations and wishes of the French people” and which won their favour have been summed up thus by those close to him: youth education and training; equal wages for men and women; free contraception dispensed in total anonymity; rent control; hundreds of thousands of jobs in green energy, plus a few other points which are of no direct significance to EU action.
(4) …but change taking place. Things have changed, however, in this the decisive phase of the electoral campaign which has just begun. Key issues being discussed depend on European policies: trade relations with third countries and reciprocity of commitments; the way the Schengen area operates; application of financial discipline, etc. These and other equally important matters fall within the Community's area of responsibility, and Mr Hollande, just as much as Mr Sarkozy, will have to discuss them.
(5) Possible agreement on treaty on budgetary discipline. Review of the European treaty on budgetary discipline in the eurozone (an issue which I discussed yesterday) is still in Mr Hollande's election manifesto. Talk is beginning, however, that this review might not involve amendment of the treaty at issue, which would, for instance, mean that member states which had long ratified the agreement (for the moment, three have done so and others will follow) having to go through another ratification process.
The solution might reside in a protocol to be added to the treaty. EU circles in Brussels feel that renegotiation of the treaty, which Germany has demanded in return for the instruments to provide monetary support for countries in difficulty, is impossible. This is a demand that has support from virtually all political sides in Germany, including the Socialist party. Nor must it be forgotten that the twin-track approach on budgetary balance and economic recovery is now backed by virtually all the political families, including in the European Parliament.
The lesson in democracy delivered by the French people. It would be unfair not to make reference once more to the significance of the fact that 80% of French citizens eligible to vote turned out on Sunday, even though predictions were for much lower numbers. This is an example and a lesson which the people of France have given other member states where politicians, through their behaviour, have largely lost all credibility in the eyes of the public. In Greece, Italy and elsewhere, abuses by professional politicians have been such they have lost the confidence of the electorate and attempts to restore this trust seem still to be too little. France, too, has had its scandals, of course, but those responsible have mostly been cast into the political wilderness.
(FR/transl.rt)